IMF cuts growth outlook, warns world already drifting toward more adverse scenario

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) cut its growth outlook on Tuesday (April 14, 2026) due to West Asia war-driven energy price spikes but said the world was already ‌drifting toward a more adverse scenario with much-weaker growth as Strait of Hormuz shipping disruptions continue. With massive uncertainty over the West Asia conflict gripping finance ​officials gathered for IMF and World Bank spring meetings in Washington, the IMF presented three growth scenarios: weaker, worse and severe, depending on how the war unfolds.

Under the ⁠IMF’s worst-case outlook, the global economy teeters on the brink of recession, with oil prices averaging $110 a barrel in 2026 and $125 in 2027. The IMF chose the most benign scenario for its World Economic Outlook “reference forecast,” which assumes a short-lived conflict and oil prices normalizing in the second half of 2026, with an $82 per-barrel average for the year – well below Tuesday’s (April 14, 2026) benchmark Brent crude futures price of around $96.

Just minutes after releasing the outlook, IMF ‌chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said it may be already outdated. He told reporters that with continued energy disruptions and no clear path to end the conflict, the IMF’s “adverse scenario” looks increasingly likely. That middle path envisions a longer conflict that keeps oil prices around $100 per barrel this year and $75 in 2027, with global growth falling to 2.5% ‌this year from 3.4% in 2025.