A tactical thaw in Kerala politics

With just over a couple of months to go for the Kerala Assembly elections, and coming hard on the heels of a fiercely contested local body poll, the State’s political chessboard is being swiftly rearranged. At the centre of this churn is a development that would have seemed improbable even a year ago: the visible thaw in relations between the Sree Narayana Dharma Paripalana (SNDP) Yogam and the Nair Service Society (NSS).

For the two Hindu community organisations that wield decisive influence across large swathes of southern and central Kerala, the symbolism of this emerging bonhomie is as potent as the electoral arithmetic. If this alignment holds, it would represent the most serious attempt at Hindu community convergence in over a decade.

The last attempt to stitch together a Grand Hindu Alliance between 2012 and 2014 had failed. It collapsed under bitter disagreements between these very same bodies over caste-based reservations and the Devaswom Recruitment Board. The bitterness of that rupture lingered for almost a decade, making the present display of warmth all the more striking. Beneath the cordiality, however, still lies a fundamental uncertainty over how they intend to reconcile positions shaped by sharply different social and political standings. For now, the convergence appears tactical. 

In reality, the rapprochement did not materialise overnight. The leadership of the NSS and SNDP had been edging closer for over a year. The turning point came in September last year with the Global Ayyappa Sangamam at Pampa, organised by the Left Democratic Front government ostensibly to deliberate on the future course of development at the hill shrine.

But what has clearly accelerated the public expression of this alignment is the emergence of a common adversary in Opposition leader V.D. Satheesan. The general secretaries of both organisations, G. Sukumaran Nair and Vellappally Natesan, have made little effort to hide their hostility toward Mr. Satheesan since he assumed office. This discontent came to the fore after Mr. Satheesan criticised controversial remarks by the SNDP leader, widely seen as targeting the Muslim community in Malabar. From there, the divisions became sharper, and the alignment unmistakably public. After all, both organisations have long harboured concerns over a perceived rise of Muslim influence in Kerala’s political arena.

Also read | Remarks about Satheesan misrepresented by media: NSS general secretary

The projection of the LDF as enjoying the confidence of two of Kerala’s most influential Hindu community organisations has sparked speculation that the CPI(M) played a quiet role in nudging the SNDP-NSS rapprochement. The move is widely seen as a counterweight to the steady consolidation of Muslim votes in Malabar and Catholic votes in central Travancore behind the Congress-led United Democratic Front. Viewed through this prism, the timing of senior CPI(M) leader A.K. Balan’s remark that Jamaat e Islami would control the Home portfolio under a UDF government appears anything but incidental. This pattern found continuity when Cultural Affairs Minister Saji Cherian drew pointed attention to the identity of candidates fielded by the Indian Union Muslim League. The CPI(M) and the LDF have maintained a studied silence, as if to allow the narrative to gain traction without formal endorsement.

For the UDF, which rides high on its local body election gains under Mr. Satheesan’s leadership, this evolving chemistry between the NSS and SNDP is an unwelcome complication. Not just the Congress, but even the IUML has chosen restraint. After a decade out of power, the UDF’s strategy is clear: allow anti-incumbency to do the heavy lifting, consolidate its social coalition, and avoid detonating new fault lines on the eve of the Assembly polls.

Whether the coming together of these two Hindu community organisations, which together represent roughly 35% of Kerala’s Hindu population, will convert into a proportionate electoral swing remains an open question. Large sections within these communities are already anchored to entrenched political loyalties. The National Democratic Alliance also commands a significant share of this social space.

What is already beyond doubt, however, is that identity politics is no longer hovering at the margins. It is fast-moving to the very centre of Kerala’s high-stakes electoral contest.