Will the ‘Suresh Gopi effect’ work again in Thrissur?

Does Suresh Gopi, the lone BJP MP from Kerala and the Union Minister of State for Petroleum and Natural Gas, still hold decisive sway over voters in Thrissur? And can that influence help the BJP secure the Assembly seat?

Mr. Gopi’s 2024 Lok Sabha election victory, by a massive margin of 74,840 votes, marked a watershed moment for the BJP in Kerala. It capped a steady rise that began in 2021, when he pushed the party’s vote share in Thrissur to a record 31.3% despite finishing third, nearly 12 percentage points higher than its 2016 tally. He secured 40,457 votes, a sharp rise from the 24,748 votes polled by the BJP in 2016, signaling a significant expansion of the party’s base.

The BJP is now betting on that personal appeal to power its Assembly prospects. This time, the party has fielded Padmaja Venugopal, with Mr. Gopi backing her campaign. The key question is whether his vote-pulling ability can transfer to another candidate.

Early signs suggest a more complex picture. Earlier, the party had hoped that the “Suresh Gopi effect” would cascade into the local body elections as well. Initiatives like “Kalungu Samvadam” and “Coffee with SG” were designed to deepen grassroots engagement and sustain voter enthusiasm. But the results fell short of expectations.

Civic body polls results

Despite entering the civic polls with high confidence after the Lok Sabha victory, the NDA managed only a marginal improvement in the Thrissur Corporation — increasing its tally from six seats in 2020 to eight. The much-anticipated breakthrough did not materialise, unlike in Thiruvananthapuram, where the party is ruling the Corporation.

The absence of a visible “wave” has since become a talking point. BJP leaders remain bullish. They argue that Mr. Gopi’s appeal is rooted in authenticity rather than conventional politics. “There is no politician who has made such an effort to connect with ordinary people. He is genuine, without pretensions. People love him,” party insiders maintain, dismissing criticism as envy of his popularity.

However, critics present a sharply different narrative. Opposition leaders contend that Mr. Gopi’s Lok Sabha victory was more personal than ideological — a one-off convergence of celebrity appeal and campaign momentum rather than a durable shift towards the BJP.

Many controversies

They argue that the sheen has since faded. Controversies have dogged the MP. Allegations of ‘vote theft’ and claims that he voted in different constituencies within a short span have triggered political attacks. His public statements have frequently sparked debates, and opponents accuse him of adopting an imperious tone that distances him from ordinary voters.

The delay and confusion surrounding projects like AIIMS, along with accusations of inaction on pressing issues such as the cooking gas shortage — despite his role as Union Minister of State for Petroleum and Natural Gas — have been used to question his credibility.

There is also a shift in public perception, with Mr. Gopi becoming one of the most trolled political figures in Kerala; a sign, critics say, that his once-unquestioned popularity is now being tested.

Even so, writing off Mr. Gopi would be premature. If Mr. Gopi’s influence holds, Thrissur could become the party’s major breakthrough in the Kerala Assembly. If not, it may reinforce the limits of personality-driven politics in a State where organisational depth and coalition arithmetic still reign supreme.