What the civic body poll results mean for Maharashtra politics

The results of Maharashtra municipal corporation elections have set the mood for the 2029 elections, firmly pitching the BJP as the single largest and the strongest party in the State. By winning 1,372 of 2,784 seats, and by trumping allies and Deputy Chief Ministers Ajit Pawar and Eknath Shinde in key constituencies, it has shown how it will likely dominate the Mahayuti government for the next three years.

Congress has emerged as the biggest Opposition party in rest of Maharashtra. But in Mumbai, the most high-stakes battle, Uddhav Thackeray emerged as the principal Opposition by becoming the second largest party after the BJP.

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The results show the likely power dynamics within the Mahayuti, and also raise questions on the future of the Maha Vikas Aghadi as a collective Opposition front.

The BJP has won four times more seats than the Congress (315), the principal Opposition party in Maharashtra, and thrice that of Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena (394), the second largest party. Not only have the results hinted at the power dynamics in the State henceforth, but it has also shown who the primary Opposition party will be in the upcoming polls, painting a bleak future for regional parties such as Sharad Pawar’s NCP and Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena.

The results have shown a weakened Mr. Pawar (36 seats), whose party could not even open its account in several municipal corporations. While the Congress turned out to be the major Opposition party in the rest of the State, the magic of the Thackeray brand is likely to have worked in Mumbai for Mr. Uddhav, whose party became the second largest party after the BJP, giving tough time to Mr. Shinde for the Marathi vote bank. In Mumbai, the BJP led on 87 seats, while Mr. Uddhav’s party got 65 seats.

But the same brand did not seem to work for Mr. Raj whose political fortunes have dwindled despite trying all possible combinations in the past few years. His party gained only five seats in Mumbai, which contributed to the 12 seats across Maharashtra. His minor sphere of electoral influence has been limited to the Mumbai Metropolitan Region area where he won five seats each in two corporations, and one seat in another corporation. In Nashik, where his party had once ruled, he could get only one seat.

Consolidation of Marathi vote bank

The efforts of the Thackeray cousins, who reunited after a gap of 20 years, were to consolidate the Marathi vote bank. That emotive appeal seems to have worked in the core Marathi voter belt of Mumbai consisting of Dadar, Mahim, Parel.

The cousins defeated Mr. Shinde’s candidates in these constituencies in Mumbai, to give Mr. Uddhav an edge in Mumbai. The question of who the Shiv Sena belongs to in Mumbai seems to have been resolved by the voters in the island city. But, in the rest of the State, Mr. Uddhav’s performance was dismal. His was the fifth largest among the six parties. He won 149 seats.

Jolt to Ajit Pawar

NCP leader Ajit Pawar, who campaigned extensively against ally BJP to try and wrestle back the control of Pune and Pimpri Chinchwad municipal corporations, faced an embarrassing defeat. This, despite the fact that he joined hands with uncle Sharad Pawar after a gap of two years. While senior Pawar sits in the Opposition, Mr. Ajit is the Deputy Chief Minister of Maharashtra and shares power with the BJP. His party became the fourth largest party among the six major parties by winning 158 seats. He said he humbly accepted the mandate. But this could mean that the importance of NCP in the State government might reduce henceforth.