West Asia on fire: on the Israeli-American war against Iran

Six days after the unprovoked, illegal Israeli-American war against Iran began, West Asia has descended into chaos. When U.S. President Donald Trump launched the war, killing Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, other leaders and at least 160 schoolchildren, he called on Iranians to overthrow the Islamic Republic and take over state institutions. That did not happen. Iran retaliated by targeting Israel as well as American bases, assets and missions in the Persian Gulf region. Satellite image-based analyses suggest that Iran has struck communication and radar structures at seven U.S. military sites. Hezbollah, the Lebanese militant group, also joined the war with rocket attacks on northern Israel. In Iraq, pro-Iran militias have struck American assets in Erbil and other areas. The U.S. has confirmed that at least six service personnel were killed and three fighter jets were lost in Kuwaiti “friendly fire”, according to the Pentagon. On March 4, the U.S. expanded the theatre of war to the Indian Ocean by torpedoing an Iranian warship, IRIS Dena, off Sri Lanka, killing at least 83 personnel. The ship was in the region for last week’s International Fleet Review off Visakhapatnam. If Mr. Trump and his ally Benjamin Netanyahu believed that Khamenei’s killing would lead to a collapse of Iran’s government, the result has instead been an all-out regional war.

Neither side has shown any willingness to step back. U.S. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth said on Wednesday that the conflict could last up to eight weeks. Ali Larijani, Iran’s security chief, has ruled out talks with the U.S. and American media have reported that Washington is considering arming ethnic Kurdish militias in Iran’s northwest to provoke internal unrest. This is a dangerous game. It appears that Mr. Trump launched the war without an exit strategy. As the Iranian state and its institutions show no signs of cracking, the U.S. has turned to massive bombardment and the prospect of fuelling civil strife in a country that it promised to “liberate” from clerical rule only days ago. If the war drags on, Mr. Trump is likely to face growing domestic resistance, with sections of his far-right base already calling it “Israel’s war”. For India, rising oil and gas prices will add to the burden on its economy, while a widening war could threaten the economic and physical security of the millions of Indians living in the region. New Delhi, which initially did not condemn the assassination of Khamenei, the leader of a friendly country, should take a more emphatic stand against the war and work with other powers to de-escalate the conflict. India should also strongly oppose U.S. attempts to bring the war to its backyard.