War in West Asia dampens tourism in Kerala

Kovalam beach, at the southern tip of India, was uncharacteristically calm during the last week of March. Despite its enduring charm, which has drawn European tourists in large numbers over the decades, the shoreline is far from crowded, except for a few hundred domestic visitors. This time of the year typically coincides with the spring equinox, when the sun stands nearly overhead, pushing up daytime temperatures and enveloping Kerala in a blanket of heat and humidity. Yet, this season feels different.

Intermittent summer showers in the latter half of the month have tempered the heat a bit, lending a mildness to the otherwise sultry weather. Even under clear, sunny skies, the beach appears unusually sparse in terms of foreign tourists. The absence of European visitors is striking, a quiet testament to how the unfolding crisis in West Asia has disrupted travel plans of many and cast a shadow over Kerala’s tourism sector and local economy.

Seated along the shoreline kissed by pristine blue waters, Sundara Moorthy C.K., a travel guide with nearly four decades of experience, says he has never seen Kovalam so devoid of European tourists at this time of year. In recent years, there has already been a noticeable decline in visitors from Russia and Scandinavian countries and members of the Commonwealth of Independent States, due to volatile geopolitics across these regions.

The situation has now intensified with the disruption of international flight operations and turmoil in the main transit locations of West Asia. The grounding of operation of several airlines connecting Kerala with West Asia following airspace closures in the Gulf countries amid escalating military tensions has severely impacted tourist flows, dealing a heavy blow to the economy of the State.

Guests forced to overstay

“An eight-member group from the U.K., for whom I had been providing guiding services, has been forced to overstay after their flights were cancelled. Just two days ago, their travel agent managed to arrange tickets, avoiding transit points like Dubai and Doha,” Moorthy says.

The travel restrictions have upset the itineraries of many foreigners who had already left home for their annual vacation.

Mila from Sweden, who reached Kovalam two days after her scheduled plan, had booked a ticket from Copenhagen to Goa via Doha on Qatar Airways. “However, Qatar Airways cancelled the flight due to the war, and I had to book a ticket with Air India to New Delhi and Chennai, and then to Goa before coming to Kerala. We missed out on two days due to the war. We are now going to Vietnam from here, and then we will fly directly from Ho Chi Minh City to our home city,” says Mila.

The drop in the number of foreigners has cast a pall of gloom over the tourism industry. Rajesh S., a private beach shack staff member in Kovalam who has arranged sunbeds and umbrellas for foreigners on the beach for three decades, says he has hardly had any international clients of late. Even the tourists who have reached the beach are anxious to return due to the war. The industry largely benefits from foreign tourists’ visit, since domestic tourists do not spend as much as, says Rajesh.

Wellness tourism ailing

The repercussions of the war are felt in allied sectors too. The situation is not rosy in the medical tourism sector, often regarded as the cradle of wellness tourism in India, which has been hit hard due to booking cancellations.

“Nearly 85% of wellness tourists visiting the State from abroad rely on transit hubs such as Doha and Dubai due to the lack of direct flights to Kerala from Europe. With these routes disrupted, the inflow of wellness tourists has come to a near standstill. This has led to massive cancellations and postponements,” says Sajeev Kurup, general secretary of the Confederation of Kerala Tourism Industries and chairman of the Ayurveda Task Force under FICCI’s National Tourism Committee. Moreover, the bookings for the next season , which usually begin by the end of this season, are so far nil, adds Kurup.

The lure of live kitchens 

The shortage of LPG, triggered by the ongoing conflict, has further compounded the woes. Fifty-six-year-old K. Ragavan, who runs an eatery on the route to the popular Papanasam Beach in Varkala, a coastal destination famed for its red laterite cliffs bordering the Arabian Sea, says the shortage of LPG, coupled with the drop in tourists, has dealt a big blow to his business. “Tourists are attracted when the kitchen is live in local eateries, but we are unable to run live kitchens now due to LPG shortage. Hence, I have been getting only one-fourth of my daily revenue, which is insufficient to meet the expenses of the eatery, including the wages of two support staff,” he says.

A large number of eateries across Kerala, known for their local, Chinese, Arab, and Continental cuisines, have been forced to halt operations, hurting the economy badly. B. Vijayakumar, owner of Nook Restaurant in Thiruvananthapuram, said he allowed his staff from other States to return home in the wake of drop in business. “We are unable to pay them. Moreover, the natives of West Bengal and Assam, which go to the polls in April, can cast their votes,” says Vijayakumar.

Giving election the miss

There are over 3.5 million Keralites in Gulf countries and the end of March typically marks the beginning of a peak international travel season in Kerala. The airports usually bustle with activity. Although the foreign tourist season that begins in October-November tapers off by April, this period also coincides with school vacations and, this year, the Assembly elections, prompting many Non-Resident Keralites to return home, particularly in the Malabar region, to cast their votes.

However, this year tells a different story. “There is unlikely to be any significant inflow of expatriates to Kerala this vacation season,” says Abubacker Arimbra, president of the Kerala Muslim Cultural Centre, Jeddah unit, Saudi Arabia. “People are unsure whether they will be able to return to their workplaces on time if the situation in West Asia worsens. Hence, most expatriates are choosing to stay back,” says Mr. Arimbra.

For 47-year-old Shaji Muhammad, a cab driver based in Thrissur, the impact has been immediate and severe. His income has plummeted to just 30% of usual earnings following the flight disruptions. “I used to get around 30 to 40 trips a month to and from the Cochin International Airport,” he says. “Most of my clients were regulars, people working in Gulf Cooperation Council countries or their family members travelling for reunions during school vacations. I’ve hardly had four trips so far this month,” rues Muhammad.

The uncertainty surrounding the West Asian crisis has forced many expatriate families to abandon immediate travel plans. Concerns over job stability in the Gulf, amid reports of salary cuts and slowing economic activity, have added to the anxiety.

Dhanya Sujith, whose husband is an engineer in the UAE, recently cancelled her plans to travel there with their two children during the school vacation. “My husband’s employer has indicated a possible 20% salary cut if the situation persists,” she says. “Given the uncertainty and the possibility of further flight disruptions, it is safer to stay in Kerala for now. Any escalation could disrupt our children’s schooling,” says Dhanya.

Experts warn that the implications of the crisis could extend far beyond tourism and travel. Kerala’s economy, heavily dependent on remittances and tourism, is beginning to feel the heat as its key lifelines are disrupted.

“We have fared relatively well during past crises, including the 2008 global financial meltdown and the COVID-19 pandemic,” says S. Irudaya Rajan, Chair of the International Institute of Migration and Development (IIMAD). “But this situation could have an impact comparable to the combined effect of both those crises. Unlike earlier conflicts like Kuwait-Iraq war, which were more localised, the current crisis affects the entire Gulf region. The economic repercussions could be far greater than we anticipate,” says Rajan

Investor confidence in the Gulf is also showing signs of strain, with reports suggesting that some investors are beginning to look beyond the region. This could have significant implications for millions of Indian workers, feel experts.

For expatriates like Jijesh Gopinath, a native of Ernakulam who has worked in the UAE for over two decades, the uncertainty is deeply personal. “It’s unclear whether we should bring our children back to Kerala by the next academic year,” he says. “If the war drags on and salaries get cut, sustaining a family in the Gulf will become difficult. The question is whether to wait until June-July or act now,” says Jijesh.

“The government should urgently constitute a panel to assess both the short-term and long-term impacts of this crisis and formulate measures to mitigate the impact of the crisis,” suggests Rajan.

With Kerala heading to Assembly polls on April 9, the public discourse and political narrative are, for now, dominated by local issues, ranging from developmental concerns to controversies involving both the Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the United Democratic Front (UDF), alongside identity and religious debates.

The power of remittances

The Kerala Migration Survey 2023, conducted by the Gulati Institute of Finance and Taxation with technical support from the IIMAD, estimates total remittances from expatriates at a record ₹2,16,893 crore in 2023, up from ₹85,092 crore in 2018 – a 154.9% increase. It bears testimony to how significantly NRI remittances have strengthened Kerala’s economy.

The State also continues to maintain a steady 21% share in India’s NRI deposits since 2019. Against this backdrop, once the dust of the election campaign settles, Kerala is likely to confront a future marked by deep uncertainty, shaped in no small measure by the unfolding crisis in West Asia.