Transatlantic strains: on Europe and the U.S.

The international rules-based order “no longer exists”, Germany’s Chancellor Friedrich Merz said at the annual Munich Security Conference. French President Emmanuel Macron called for greater European “military autonomy”, arguing that the continent must become a stronger pillar within NATO. While these remarks reflected Europe’s growing anxiety over the U.S.’s receding security commitments, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio promised a path of cooperation. He advocated a stronger alliance rooted in shared history and Christian cultural linkages rather than shared strategic interests. The speeches by European and American officials underscored both the strains in transatlantic ties and Europe’s mounting challenges. Last year, at the same venue, U.S. Vice-President J.D. Vance had slammed Europe’s democratic model and its refugee policies. Mr. Rubio, though conciliatory, also echoed the American far-right’s central talking point of “civilizational erasure”. The Trump administration wants Europe, at a moment of crisis, to join its culture wars and its push to reassert western dominance.

Today’s Europe faces a trifecta of challenges. First, the largest land conflict since the end of the Second World War has been raging on its eastern flank for four years. Europe’s principal response has been to arm Ukraine and hurt Russia through sanctions, but this has not produced decisive results on the battlefield. Second, Europe has relied on the U.S. for its security since the Second World War, a dependence that deepened after the Cold War. This lopsided partnership is no longer sustainable as the U.S., where a new far-right movement seeks to recast transatlantic ties, appears increasingly less committed to European security. Mr. Trump’s remarks about taking control of Greenland risk undermining the alliance’s collective defence principle. Third, resurgent far-right movements across Europe are challenging the idea of an inclusive European Union. As the global order shifts — as Mr. Rubio said ahead of Munich — Europe risks being squeezed by these crosscurrents. Instead, Europe has to reduce its reliance on the U.S. and build greater strategic autonomy. And if it is worried about the breakdown in the international order, it should help rebuild that by working with countries beyond the West. In the near term, Europe must also work towards ending the war in Ukraine and establishing a workable new normal with Russia. Finally, European leaders must address public resentment towards the political establishment, which continues to fuel the rise of the far-right. Continental peace and stability and cooperation and engagement with the wider world should guide Europe while it reimagines its role in the emerging world order.