Today’s best MLB pitcher strikeout props: Back Braves starter against Diamondbacks

The top two favorites to win the National League Cy Young Award will square off on Friday when Paul Skenes and the Pittsburgh Pirates meet Yoshinobu Yamamoto and the Los Angeles Dodgers in a marquee matchup at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles. Skenes (2-2, 2.87 ERA) enters the game as the Cy Young favorite at +260. Yamamoto (3-1, 0.93) is the second choice at +350. 

Sportsbooks have set Skenes’ total strikeout player prop for Friday at 6.5 (Over +100, Under -120), while Yamamoto’s is 6.5 (Over -140, Under +116). The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, rates Skenes Over 6.5 as a 3-star play and Yamamoto Under 6.5 as a 3.5-star play.

Neither play ranks as one of the top three pitcher strikeout props for Friday’s 15-game schedule. For that, the model has found even better value, with three pitcher strikeout props rated at 5 stars. Here they are:

Brandon Young Over 3.5 strikeouts (-167) vs. Tigers (6:40 p.m. ET)

Rating: 5 stars
Model projection: 5.1 strikeouts

The 26-year-old Young (0-0, 6.75) made his Major League debut on Saturday, striking out three in 4.0 innings. But over the course of his minor league career, he has shown strikeout stuff, striking out 313 batters in 265.0 innings (28.5 strikeout percentage). On Friday, he will face a Tigers club that has struck out 228 times this season, the sixth-highest total in the majors.

Logan Gilbert Under 8.5 strikeouts (-140) vs. Marlins (9:40 p.m. ET)

Rating: 5 stars
Model projection: 6.7 strikeouts

Gilbert (1-1, 2.63) has been excellent this season, but this is a lofty total. He has gone Under this number in two of his last three starts. He also has been unable to get through the sixth inning because of high pitch counts. On Friday he will square off against a Miami lineup that has been hot recently, having averaged 7.3 runs per game over its last four games.

Chris Sale Over 5.5 strikeouts (-130) vs. Diamondbacks (9:40 p.m. ET)

Rating: 5 stars
Model projection: 7.1 strikeouts

This is a modest number for Sale (0-2, 6.17), who has gone Over this total in three of five starts this season and missed going Over the total by one strikeout in each of his other two starts. According to Baseball Savant, he ranks in the 94th percentile in the majors in chase percentage (37.9) and 81st percentile in strikeout percentage (29.1).