The impact of the Congress factor on DMK’s success in 2021 Assembly poll

The recent discourse on the Congress party’s open demand for a share in power in the event of the DMK-led front’s victory in the 2026 Assembly election saw the national party’s functionary making a claim that if it were not for his party’s presence in the coalition during the 2021 Assembly elections, the Dravidian major would not have won in 16 seats and secured a majority on its own. 

The claim has been made on the basis of the Congress’ performance in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, wherein it contested on its own. At that time, the national party polled 4.32% of votes polled across the State with a higher share (8.2%) in the southern districts. Of the 16 constituencies in question, five each are in the northern and southern districts; four in the western; and the remaining two in the central parts (popularly called the Cauvery delta) of the State.  

Of these seats, the DMK won six during the 2016 Assembly election when it revived its tie-up with the Congress. Five years later, the Dravidian major, which retained the alliance with the national party, bagged 10 more. By then, however, it had roped in more allies such as the Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK), two Left parties (the Communist Party of India and the Communist Party of India – Marxist), and the Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (MDMK).  

Many factors, including the support of the Congress, had worked for the success of the DMK in the additional six seats, according to a perusal of the results of the three elections. However, for argument’s sake, if one takes into account only the Congress factor, the DMK should have won in T. Nagar in 2016, whereas it lost the seat to the AIADMK by a margin of 3,155 votes. It was another matter that even with a formidable alliance in 2021, the Dravidian major could make it in T. Nagar with a margin of merely 137 votes. 

Besides, even in 2016, there were indications that the DMK was making substantial gains over its immediate past performance. This could be seen from the fact that against the vote share of 23.61% during the 2014 Lok Sabha poll, the party increased its score to 31.64% two years later. And, when it drew support from some more parties, it is a logical corollary that the DMK’s showing improved in 2021.