Surging memory costs to reduce global PC, smartphone shipments in 2026: Gartner

Surging memory costs will reduce global PC and smartphone shipments in 2026, Gartner said on Wednesday (February 25, 2026).

Soaring memory costs are projected to drive worldwide PC shipments to decline 10.4% and smartphone shipments to drop by 8.4% in 2026, compared to 2025 levels, the Stamford-based business and technology insights firm said in a report.

Gartner also estimated a 130% surge in combined DRAM (dynamic random access memory) and solid-state drive (SSD) prices by the end of 2026, which would increase PC prices by 17% and smartphone prices by 13%, compared to 2025 levels.

Ranjit Atwal, Sr. Director Analyst at Gartner said, “This is the lowest level of device shipments witnessed in over a decade. Higher prices will narrow the range of devices available, prompting buyers to hold on to devices for longer, fundamentally altering upgrade cycles.’’

Due to rising costs, Gartner said it was expecting PC lifetime to increase by 15% for business buyers and 20% for consumers by the end of 2026. These delayed upgrades would further raise concerns over increased security vulnerabilities and challenges of managing older devices.

Entry-level PCs face obsolescence

PC memory costs are expected to peak at 23% of the total bill-of-materials (BOM) up from 16% in 2025. “This sharp increase removes vendors’ ability to absorb costs, making low-margin entry-level laptops nonviable. Ultimately, we expect the sub-$500 entry-level PC segment will disappear by 2028,” forecast Mr. Atwal.

In addition, he said, rising AI PC prices would delay the projected 50% market penetration of AI PCs until 2028.

Basic smartphones to take the biggest hit

The memory-driven price surge would disproportionately affect entry-level smartphones, leading buyers to choose refurbished or second-hand models or keep their phones longer, the analyst firm said.

Critical Pricing windows for PCs

Soaring memory price would impact the PC market hardest, reshaping its financial dynamics, Gartner observed. As a result, PC vendors should be prepared to accept a unit volume decline to sustain profitability, rather than eroding margins to chase price-sensitive buyers.

“Overall, device vendors and channels face a critical window in the first half of 2026 to optimise pricing and protect margins before component inflation compresses profitability from the second quarter onwards,” said Mr. Atwal.