Renewal vs change: on the poll scene in Tamil Nadu

In a country where the Hindutva right wing has held not just an ascendant but a hegemonic position across States, Tamil Nadu remains one of the striking exceptions. It is probably the only State where the BJP is a marginal player despite a favourable religious demographic that has helped its politics elsewhere. This owes much to the political idiom of social justice and Tamil identity that has limited political competition to the two Dravidian parties for decades, with national forces reduced to junior partners. The Dravidian-dominated party system has been sustained due to these parties’ capability to combine welfare with development, even as competitive welfarism has entrenched caste-based patronage networks and corruption that drives political variables. As he seeks re-election for the DMK, Chief Minister M.K. Stalin will bank on the idea that his party’s “Dravidian Model” has been beneficial. In the last five years, Tamil Nadu has managed impressive GSDP growth rates — the country’s highest (11.9%) among major States in 2025-26 — and become an industrial powerhouse. The DMK will also seek to capitalise on the popularity of its welfare measures, especially the cash transfer to poor women scheme. Yet, beneath this macro picture lie issues that the Opposition will harp on: corruption at various levels of governance has fuelled discontent beyond sections that have not benefited from welfare.

Former Chief Minister Edappadi K. Palaniswami, now the undisputed leader of the AIADMK after years of factional intrigue following the death of J. Jayalalithaa, leads the Opposition charge in alliance with the BJP and the PMK alongside others. The alliance does not bill itself as an ideological coalition unlike the DMK-led alliance, and also carries internal contradictions such as incorporating the AIADMK-breakaway, the AMMK. But its strategy is to let the concentrated votes of the PMK (in the north), the BJP (in the south and western belt) and the AMMK (pockets in the delta and southern regions) accrue to itself. Mr. Palaniswami must also manage the BJP’s ambition to expand its share among contested seats lest the party eat into the AIADMK’s base. The ideologically taut DMK-led alliance with the Congress, Left, the VCK and smaller parties has helped it secure parliamentary, Assembly and local body wins in the last decade. But the steady growth of Seeman’s NTK and the emergence of a wildcard in the actor Vijay-led TVK could complicate the contest. If the TVK splits the anti-incumbency votes, it would benefit the DMK-led coalition. But if the Vijay-led party manages to win over youth and minority religious community votes, it could equally hurt the ruling coalition. The outcome will determine whether the Dravidian framework that has kept the BJP at the margins can hold in an increasingly fragmented arena.