Nepal’s general election on March 5 seeks political change

Nepal will be voting in a landmark general election on Thursday (March 5, 2026), in what many see as a quest for political change. The polls follow last September’s youth-led movement against corruption, misgovernance, and a patronage-driven economy long associated with an ageing political class.

Around 19 million people are eligible to vote, including roughly one million newly registered voters — most of them young — in a country of about 30 million.

Why is this election different?

The election is being held two years ahead of schedule because of the two-day Gen Z protests during which 77 people lost their lives, including 19 who were killed in police firing on the first day of demonstrations on September 8.

The vote is viewed as a corrective measure — an opportunity to break Nepal’s cycle of revolving-door politics that has plagued the country for decades and to create conditions for implementing the demands of the youth movement.

Those demands — accountability, clean governance and economic reform — resonate well beyond the youth protesters and across the broader population.

What will this election decide?

Voters will elect a new House of Representatives.

Nepal’s House of Representatives, or Pratinidhi Sabha, is the lower chamber of the federal parliament and has 275 members — 165 elected through the First-Past-The-Post (FPTP) system and 110 through Proportional Representation (PR).

Voters cast two ballots: one for an individual candidate under FPTP and another for a political party under PR.

Under FPTP, the candidate with the highest number of votes in each constituency wins. Under PR, seats are allocated to parties based on their nationwide vote share. Nepal’s Election Commission uses the Sainte-Laguë method to distribute PR seats.

A party that secures at least 138 seats — a simple majority — can form a government on its own. If no party reaches that threshold, the single largest party is invited to form a government, typically through coalition-building.

Key political forces

For much of the post-1990 democratic era, two parties have dominated Nepali politics — the Nepali Congress (NC), which espouses democratic socialism, and the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist–Leninist) (CPN-UML), which has adopted “People’s Multiparty Democracy” as its ideology. K.P. Sharma Oli of the UML was Prime Minister, backed by the Nepali Congress, when September protests took place.

In 2008, these establishment forces were disrupted by the rise of the Maoists, who entered electoral politics after ending a decade-long insurgency. Riding anti-incumbency sentiment and public demand for change, they emerged as a major force.

Following the recent protests, Pushpa Kamal Dahal of the Maoist Centre brought together around a dozen smaller communist factions to form the Nepali Communist Party. The new formation adheres to Marxism–Leninism and what it calls Scientific Socialism. However, many voters now view it as part of the entrenched political establishment it once challenged.

A major new player is the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP). Formed just six months before the 2022 elections, it has generated a groundswell reminiscent of the Maoists’ rise nearly two decades ago.

As in 2008, anti-incumbency sentiment and calls for systemic change are shaping the political mood. The difference now is that the Maoists themselves are widely seen as part of the old guard. The RSP positions itself as a centrist liberal alternative to traditional parties.

The Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP) advocates restoring the monarchy and reinstating Nepal as a Hindu state. Nepal abolished its monarchy in 2008 and formally became a federal democratic republic under the 2015 Constitution.

Watch: The rise and fall of K.P. Sharma Oli: Nepal’s embattled leader

The RPP’s electoral performance has historically remained modest, but it cannot be entirely dismissed.

Another new entrant drawing attention in select constituencies is the Ujyalo Nepal Party (UNP), founded in December by technocrat Kulman Ghising, who is widely credited with ending Nepal’s prolonged electricity shortages. Ideologically, the party mirrors the Nepali Congress’s democratic socialism but presents itself as technocratic and governance-focused.

Constituencies to watch

Jhapa-5

This eastern constituency is the political stronghold of former Prime Minister K. P. Sharma Oli, who has lost only once in seven elections there since 1990.

He faces a strong challenge from Balendra Shah of the RSP, a former Kathmandu mayor with significant popularity. The RSP has projected Mr. Shah as its prime ministerial candidate.

About 40% of Jhapa-5’s 163,379 voters are between 18 and 40 years old. A defeat for the 74-year-old Oli could effectively end his long political career.

Sarlahi-4

Gagan Thapa, recently elected president of the Nepali Congress, has shifted from his long-held Kathmandu-4 constituency to Sarlahi-4 in Madhesh province, which borders India.

Projected as the NC’s prime ministerial candidate, Mr. Thapa faces former Congress leader Amresh Kumar Singh, now running as an RSP candidate. The constituency has 121,012 voters, around 40% of whom are aged between 18 and 40.

Mr. Thapa claims the move is his effort to reconnect Madhesh with national politics and rebuild Congress’s base in the region. Some see it as a political gamble. A loss would raise serious questions about his leadership, especially since he assumed party leadership only in January.

Rukum-1

Pushpa Kamal Dahal, a three-time prime minister, has shifted to Rukum-1 — a former Maoist stronghold during the insurgency he led. Of the constituency’s 34,772 voters, about 45% are aged 18–40.

If the 71-year-old Dahal fails to win, it could mark the end of his electoral career.

When will the results be known?

Vote counting in Nepal is slow because of the complex ballot design and the large number of parties and candidates. As many as 67 parties and 3,405 candidates are contesting this election. Votes are counted manually.

While FPTP results start to trickle in as counting in individual constituencies is completed, PR ballots must be tallied nationwide before final allocation. As a result, it may take up to a month for the full and final results to be declared.

Voting trends

Nepalis have traditionally been enthusiastic about exercising their franchise.

In the four elections held since 2008, voter turnout has remained robust. The 2013 Constituent Assembly elections recorded the highest turnout at 78.3%. The 2008 election to choose the first Constituent Assembly saw a turnout of 61.7 percent. In the two general elections held after the promulgation of the Constitution — in 2017 and 2022 — turnout stood at 68.7% and 61.4%, respectively.

What are the possible outcomes?

Nepal’s mixed electoral system makes it difficult for any single party to secure a majority. Analysts expect a hung parliament and a return to the same old coalition cycle.

The Rastriya Swatantra Party is experiencing a groundswell, but converting public enthusiasm into actual votes remains a challenge.

Because this election follows a youth-led movement, turnout among younger voters could prove decisive.

The RSP could also benefit from voter fatigue, as many may vote for it not necessarily in the hope of miraculous change, but with the intent of teaching the old parties a lesson.