Lok Poll survey signals strong UDF surge in Kerala

A Lok Poll pre poll survey has swung the momentum decisively in favour of the UDF in Kerala, sharpening the prospects of a change in government.

Conducted between March 14 and 31 among 36,400 respondents, the survey points to a clear edge for the United Democratic Front. It projects the UDF to win between 77 and 81 seats, with a vote share of 42 to 44 percent.

The Left Democratic Front is estimated to secure 58 to 62 seats, with a vote share of 39 to 41 percent. The survey also indicates that the NDA may manage to win between one and two seats.

Region wise performance

North Kerala: The UDF is projected to enjoy clear dominance, winning between 28 and 32 seats. Consolidation of Muslim votes and growing discontent among farmers are seen as key factors.

Central Kerala: Consolidation of Christian votes, along with agrarian concerns, is expected to work in favour of the UDF, with the front likely to secure 29 to 33 seats.

South Kerala: A tight contest is on the cards, with both the LDF and UDF locked in close competition. The UDF is projected to win 16 to 20 seats, while the LDF may secure 16 to 19 seats.

Key findings

A strong anti incumbency sentiment continues to weigh against the LDF government.

Allegations, including the Sabarimala gold theft controversy, have dented the government’s credibility.

Consolidation of Muslim and Christian votes is emerging as a decisive advantage for the UDF.

Growing discontent among farmers and fishing communities is intensifying the anti government mood.

Better coordination within the UDF has helped plug vote leakage.

While the NDA may improve its vote share, this is unlikely to translate into significant seat gains.

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