Kerala Assembly polls 2026: Bitter battle for nine seats that can turn electoral fortunes

Major three-cornered contests are happening in at least nine constituencies in Kerala that could even determine the final outcome of the upcoming Assembly election scheduled for April 9.

Of these constituencies, Nemom, Kazhakkoottam, Vattiyoorkkavu, and Aranmula are in the southern part of the State; Pala, Thrissur, and Nattika are in Central Kerala; and Palakkad and Manjeshwaram are in North Kerala. While six of these have MLAs from the Left Democratic Front (LDF), led by Communist Party of India (Marxist), the rest are represented by the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF).

Nemom in Thiruvananthapuram district is so far the only constituency in Kerala to have elected a member from the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) to the Assembly. Senior BJP leader O. Rajagopal had defeated K. Sivankutty of the LDF in 2016. Mr. Sivankutty wrested the seat back in the 2021 polls as he defeated Kummanam Rajasekharan of the BJP by a margin of 3,949 votes. K. Muraleedharan of the UDF was pushed to the third spot. The difference in vote share between the LDF and NDA nominees was just around three percentage points. Mr. Sivankutty is now pitted against BJP State president Rajeev Chandrasekhar and K.S. Sabarinadhan of the UDF, who is a councillor in the Thiruvananthapuram Corporation and a former MLA.

In Vattiyurkavu too, NDA candidates had finished second in the 2016 (Mr. Rajasekharan) and 2021 elections (V.V. Rajesh). However, the Congress could claim the second spot in the 2019 bypoll when V.K. Prasanth, the incumbent MLA, was first elected to the Assembly. Mr. Prashanth is now seeking a third term. His NDA rival is R. Sreelekha, a former DGP and a councillor in the Thiruvananthapuram Corporation. The UDF candidate is Mr. K. Muraleedharan, who won the Assembly polls from here in 2011 and 2016.

Kazhakkottam is another segment where the NDA is on a strong wicket. The BJP had finished second here in the previous two elections. In 2021, Kadakampally Surendran of the LDF had defeated Shobha Surendran of the NDA by a margin of 23,497 votes. In 2016, Mr. Surendran’s victory was against the BJP’s V. Muraleedharan by a margin of 7,347 votes. The difference in vote share was 5.48 percentage points. Right now, Mr. Surendran is contesting against Mr. V. Muraleedharan again. The UDF candidate is T. Sharatchandra Prasad, a former MLA. The NDA’s hopes rest on its recent victory in the local body polls in the Thiruvananthapuram Corporation.

The BJP is waging a high-stakes battle in the temple town of Aranmula in Pathanamthitta, where Health Minister Veena George of the LDF is seeking a third term. She had defeated K. Sivadasan Nair of the Congress in 2016(by 7,646 votes) and 2021 (by 19,003 votes). The NDA has fielded Mr. Rajasekharan from here in a bid to utilise his popularity during the agitation against the proposed Aranmula Airport. The Congress nominee is Abin Varkey, who could influence a section of the community votes that reportedly went in favour of Ms. George in earlier elections.

Thrissur had witnessed a close contest in the 2021 polls after which LDF candidate P. Balachandran of the Communist Party of India (CPI) just scraped through with a victory margin of 946 votes. The nearest rivals were Padmaja Venugopal of the UDF and Suresh Gopi of the NDA, respectively. Ms. Venugopal is the NDA candidate now and Mr. Gopi had won the 2024 Lok Sabha polls from here. While the UDF has now fielded former Mayor Rajan Pallan, the LDF candidate is poet Alankode Leelakrishnan.

Meanwhile, the Palakkad seat is already hogging the limelight with Leader of the Opposition V.D. Satheesan alleging a “deal” between the Left and the BJP here. According to Mr. Satheesan, the LDF has put up an Independent candidate here, hotelier NMR Razak, to split anti-BJP votes that could go in favour of the UDF candidate, actor Ramesh Pisharody. The NDA candidate here Ms. Shobha Surendran, who had finished second in the 2016 elections.In the 2021 polls, Shafi Parambil, currently a Lok Sabha MP for Vadakara, had a narrow victory over ‘Metro man’ E. Sreedharan of the NDA by a margin of 3,859 votes. The UDF decided not to field Rahul Mamkootathil, the incumbent MLA who had won a byelection by a huge margin in 2024, after sexual abuse charges were levelled against him.

Manjeshwaram also has a history of the NDA narrowly missing a chance to win from here. In 2016, K. Surendran, who later became the State president of the BJP, lost to the Indian Union Muslim League’s P.B. Abdul Razak, the UDF candidate, by a margin of just 89 votes. K. Sundara, an Independent, had polled 467 votes. Mr. Surendran again lost in 2021, this time to the UDF’s A.K.M. Ashraf, by a margin of 855 votes. The NDA and the UDF have repeated their candidates here while the LDF has nominated K.R. Jayananda.

Though Pala in Kottayam and Nattika in Thrissur have not had a triangular poll fight so far, this election could be a different story. In Pala, Kerala Congress (Mani) chairman Jose K. Mani of the LDF is taking on incumbent MLA Mani C. Kappan of the UDF again. The NDA has fielded Shone George, the son of former Poonjar MLA P.C. George. In Nattika, incumbent MLA C.C. Mukundan, who was earlier with the CPI, is contesting as an NDA candidate against the former MLA Geetha Gopi. Sunil Laloor is the UDF nominee.