Kerala Assembly Elections 2026: Tensions in West Asia cast shadow on expat turnout

Just days before the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, two chartered flights arranged by the Kuwait unit of the Kerala Muslim Cultural Centre (KMCC), affiliated with the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML), landed in Kerala, an effort that underscored the political weight of expatriate voters working in the Gulf.

Replicating that model, however, has proved far more difficult ahead of the April 9 Assembly elections. Despite early preparations, including voter registrations and coordination efforts, the evolving conflict involving the U.S., Israel and Iran has upended plans.

“The Kuwait airport remains shut for regular flights and travel options are limited and expensive, with fares nearly tripling. Despite the prevailing situation, we are trying to arrange at least one chartered flight, but feasibility depends on the situation and how many are willing to travel,” says Musthafa Kari, general secretary, Kuwait KMCC, indicating both logistical and behavioural constraints.

Campaign financing

In recent decades, political parties have increasingly relied on Gulf-based voters not only for electoral support, but also for campaign financing. While the 2016 polls saw the height of this mobilisation, with dedicated chartered flights, the 2021 turnout was dampened by COVID-19 pandemic restrictions. The current crisis, however, introduces a more uncertain variable driven by geopolitical risk.

Expatriates, according to Kunhimon Sahip Kaakkiya, president of Saudi KMCC, are now weighing the risk of travel against job security.

“In the 2024 polls, we arranged five chartered flights from Saudi Arabia. This time, costs have surged and there is uncertainty about returning on time, which makes many hesitant. Large-scale travel will depend on how the situation evolves,” says Mr. Kaakkiya.

The disruption underscores a broader dependence on overseas voters, particularly in north Kerala, with potentially significant electoral implications. Of the State’s 2.42 lakh expatriate voters, 66.29% are concentrated in Kozhikode, Kannur and Malappuram districts, covering 40 Assembly seats, several of them closely contested.

In many constituencies in the Malabar region with significant overseas voters, such as Kuttiadi, Nadapuram and Kannur, where victory margins are often narrow, reduced expatriate turnout could prove decisive this time. For instance, the Kuttiadi segment in Kozhikode has the highest number of expatriate voters in the State at 16,206. The victory margin there in the 2021 Assembly polls was just 333 votes. Likewise, the margins in Kannur and Nadapuram were 1,745 and 4,036 votes respectively.

‘Strategic shift’

The Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF), which draws substantial support from expatriate communities, especially those aligned with the IUML, appears particularly exposed. Acknowledging this, party leaders point to a strategic shift.

“The inability of expatriate voters to visit the State to cast their votes is an issue in some constituencies. Efforts are on to arrange flights in key constituencies, but concerns about return travel persist. We are therefore strengthening local campaign activities to offset possible gaps,” says Ummer Pandikashala, IUML State vice-president.

The financial dimension adds another layer of impact. Expatriate contributions, a key element of campaign funding, have declined amid uncertainty. “Funding has reduced as many workers are cautious about job security in the current situation,” says Amir Pattanath, vice-president, Overseas Indian Cultural Congress Riyadh Central Committee.

Observers say the United Democratic Front (UDF) stands to be the most affected by the situation, with much at stake. “Among overseas voters aligned with the UDF, nearly 80% belong to the IUML. Family members of expatriates in Kerala are also not in a positive frame of mind and it remains to be seen whether they will turn up to vote. The West Asia crisis could potentially enhance the prospects of the Left Democratic Front in at least a few constituencies,” says Attakoya Pallikandy, general secretary, Indo-Arab Confederation Council.

Published – March 31, 2026 09:52 am IST