Kerala Assembly elections 2026: How Kerala has voted since 2011

Kerala’s electoral history narrates a fascinating tale; one marked by intense power plays, invigorating victories and smear campaigns. Many popular leaders have taken the helm, bringing about revolutionary transformations in the State.

But one constant in Kerala’s political landscape has been the leadership swing between the Left Democratic Front (LDF) and United Democratic Front (UDF), except in the 2021 elections when the LDF retained power.

Kerala has frequently been a focal point of debate during major elections. While Legislative Assembly elections in Kerala have perhaps favoured the Left more, Lok Sabha results have tended to reflect stronger support for centrist coalitions. This trend is evident in the General Elections since 1957, during which time the UDF has won seats 14 out of 18 times.

For more Kerala election-related updates, follow our coverage.

How Kerala voted parties to power since 2011

2011 – Congress-led UDF ascends to power

The two key fronts in Kerala came out with a razor-thin difference in margin – of 4 seats – in the 2011 Assembly elections, with the UDF holding upperhand. That year, Kerala witnessed the near-upending of a historical trend since 1977, with the UDF emerging victorious with the narrowest of margins: 72 seats against the LDF’s 68.

Data also reflect a State that had grappled with shifting communal equations and the slow rise of a third pole, making the “swing” system no longer so predictable.

The Congress-led UDF then came to power with a vote share of 46.03%. The two alliances were separated by just 1,68,520 votes: the UDF received 8,002,854 votes, while the LDF garnered 7,834,334. The LDF’s vote share stood at 45.06%.

The total number of candidates who contested in the 13th Assembly elections in Kerala was 971, out of which 456 were representatives of national parties such as CPI, CPI(M), BJP, BSP, NCP, and so on.

Meanwhile, the UDF’s success was also anchored by the Indian Union Muslim League (IUML), which put up a stellar performance by winning 20 out of the 24 seats it had contested.

2016 – The swing returns with double force

By 2016, the predictable nature of Kerala’s electorate came back in full force. The 2016 results saw the LDF reclaim power with a great majority, winning 92 seats. The UDF’s seat share was reduced to 47. The vote share data show a dip for the UDF with just 38.6% votes, while the LDF stabilised its base with 42.58% vote share. The LDF maintained a 4% lead in vote share over the UDF, which translated into a significant “landslide” in terms of seats.

However, another significant data point of 2016 is the breakthrough of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which opened its account in the State Assembly. Senior leader O. Rajagopal won the Nemom seat in Thiruvananthapuram and marked a formal end of the strictly two-front bipolar system. The BJP’s vote share surged to 14.62%.

2021 – Breaking the norms

While 2011 and 2016 showed trends of the electorate showing inclination towards the Left, an incumbent government was re-elected for the first in Kerala in 2021. The Pinarayi Vijayan-led LDF secured a historic 99 seats, an increase from its 2016 tally, while the UDF struggled with just 41 seats. The LDF registered a vote share of 45.28% (94,07,662 votes), up from 43.35% in the 2016 Assembly polls. Moreover, the Left front garnered 10.73% more votes than it did in the Lok Sabha elections in 2019.

Several factors played a role in this “thudarbharanam” (continuity of the mandate). The LDF government earned political capital through their management of the 2018 floods and the COVID-19 pandemic. Furthermore, it was able to bring the Jose K. Mani faction of the Kerala Congress back to its fold, which broke the UDF’s long grip on the central Kerala Christian heartland.

Meanwhile, the BJP, despite its high-profile campaigns and leveraging of ‘Metroman’ E. Sreedharan, failed to secure any seat.

2026 – Who will have the last laugh?

The 2026 Assembly polls is a critical juncture in Kerala’s election history, which will decide if the LDF can pull off a historic third term or if the UDF can orchestrate a reclamation.

Meanwhile, the BJP-led NDA has stabilised its vote share between 12% and 15% and still sustains its silent equilibrium. In 2026, if the BJP is converting these shares into seats, then neither the LDF nor the UDF would likely reach the 71-seat mark on their own.

Results of the recent local body polls suggest the UDF is regaining its stronghold (especially in the Malabar area) in urban municipalities and Corporations.

It is yet to be seen if the 2026 elections will be a repetition of near-misses and wafer-thin margins or the return of the pendulum swing.

Published – April 06, 2026 11:25 am IST