Kerala Assembly elections 2026: A Congress fortress with rare LDF breaches

The United Democratic Front (UDF) dominance of the Ernakulam Assembly constituency has been so complete that the Left Democratic Front (LDF) has managed to win it only twice since 1957.

On both occasions, the LDF fielded Independents—the late literary critic M.K. Sanoo in 1987 and Sebastian Paul in 1998 in a by-election necessitated by Congress MLA George Eden’s election to the Lok Sabha. Apart from these exceptions, the seat has remained firmly in Congress hands.

The constituency comprises divisions of the Kochi Corporation and Cheranalloor panchayat. In last year’s local body polls, the LDF managed to secure only four of the 25 divisions under the CPI(M)’s Ernakulam area committee, while Cheranalloor too went to the UDF.

In the first seven elections between 1957 and 1982, Congress candidate A.L. Jacob represented the constituency for six terms and Alexander Parambithara for one. George Eden dominated the seat in 1991 and 1996, though his second term was cut short when he moved to the Lok Sabha.

The Congress’ hold continued into the new millennium, with K.V. Thomas, Dominic Presentation, Hibi Eden, and T.J. Vinod winning the seven elections between 2001 and 2021, including a by-election in 2009 when Mr. Thomas was elected to Parliament.

Ernakulam remained steadfastly with the UDF even during the LDF waves of 2016 and 2021, and in the 2019 by-election. Hibi Eden defeated the CPI(M)’s M. Anilkumar in 2016 by 21,949 votes. In the 2019 by-election, T.J. Vinod retained the seat, defeating LDF-backed Independent Manu Roy by 3,750 votes. A namesake candidate, K.M. Manu, polled 2,572 votes, further aiding the UDF.

In 2021, Mr. Vinod improved his margin to 10,970 against LDF-backed Independent Shaji George Pranatha. Mr. Eden secured a vote share of 52.33%, while Mr. Vinod notched up 42.13% and 41.72% in his two outings. For the LDF, Mr. Roy registered the highest vote share at 37.96%, followed by Mr. Anilkumar (32.46%) and Mr. Pranatha (31.76%). The BJP recorded vote shares of 13.47%, 14.85%, and 14.58% in the three successive elections since 2016.

The UDF’s dominance in the Ernakulam Assembly constituency, part of the Ernakulam Lok Sabha seat, was even more pronounced in parliamentary elections. In 2019 and 2024, Hibi Eden secured victory margins of 44,151 (55.70%) and 37,069 (56.26%) respectively. BJP candidate Alphons Kannanthanam polled 17,769 votes (16%) in 2019, while the CPI(M)’s K.J. Shine managed 20,893 votes (20.28%) in 2024; both emerging distant second. The BJP’s K.S. Radhakrishnan secured 18,320 votes (17.78%) and Twenty20’s Antony Judy 4,500 votes (4.37%) in 2024.