Iran Israel US war: Why a prolonged war with Iran will constrain the U.S.

When the conflict in West Asia, which began with the U.S. and Israel’s attack on Iran on February 28, escalated into a regional war, analysts said that the war would last as long as Iran had missiles or until the Gulf nations ran out of interceptors.

A significant number of munitions, especially missiles and interceptors, have been used by all parties engaged in the conflict.

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However, with “emergency” military sales, piling monetary costs and a strained supply chain, is the U.S. becoming too constrained in its effort to keep the war going — both militarily and monetarily?

On February 28, when the attacks began, Mr. Trump said that the U.S. was going to destroy Iran’s missiles and raze their missile industry to the ground.

However, Iran has continued its attacks on various Gulf states and their energy infrastructure. Though it has reduced its pace, it has launched over 1,400 ballistic missiles and 3,400 drones between February 28 and March 23 .

Gulf nations, on the other hand, have rushed to the U.S. for interceptors. Last week, the U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio waived the requirement of a Congress approval to pass a $16.46 billion in military sales to the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait in the wake of the Iran war.

The biggest single sale was of lower-tier air missile defence sensor radars to Kuwait for $8 billion, followed by the sale of a long-range discrimination radar and related equipment for $4.5 billion to the UAE.

This is also not the first such instance. In the first week of March, the U.S. approved an “emergency” sale of 12,000 bomb casings worth $151.8 million to Israel. 

Further, the Washington Post reported last week that the Pentagon has raised a request of more than $200 billion to fund the war in Iran– an amount that would surpass the costs of the administration’s massive airstrike campaign till date. 

These deals aside, the war itself has been an expensive affair. According to an analysis by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Operation Epic Fury is estimated to have cost $16.5 billion by its 12th day.

The estimate is based on assumptions about the U.S.-allies split in air defence. It also assumes that more than 90% of munitions used after Day 5 were low-cost weapons.

Even with these assumptions, data show that the U.S. has used a significant share of its previous procurements.

As shown in the chart above, the estimated number of munitions expended in just six days exceeds the number of orders placed by the Department of Defence in FY26 in several cases. These orders themselves might take more than a year to be delivered.

For instance, in less than a week, the U.S. has expended 158 of its Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) interceptors. This is almost 25% of all its previous procurements till FY24. It is also six times its order for THAAD interceptors placed in FY26.

Similarly, it is estimated to have used 139 of its Patriot Advanced Capability 3 (PAC-3) Missile Segment Enhancement (MSE), a high velocity hit-to-kill, surface-to-air missile to intercept air breathing threats, ballistic and cruise missiles. This is almost 7% of its previous PAC-3 procurements. 

Estimates show that almost 15% of its previous procurements of Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile (JASSM)– a long range, conventional air-to-surface cruise missile– have been expended in just six days of its war with Iran.

Replenishing these stockpiles will again cost the U.S. millions. For instance, the U.S. will require around $2 billion to replace the THAAD interceptors used in the first six days. Similarly, it will need $3 billion and close to $1 billion to replace the SM-3 interceptors and Tomahawk missiles respectively.

Supply chain factor

The U.S.’s ability to afford the war also depends on mineral supply chains. Certain minerals such as tungsten, gallium, germanium and antimony which are crucial in various military applications are under constrained supply.

As shown in the chart below, the U.S.’s Net Import Reliance (NIR) exceeds 90% for antimony and gallium. For germanium and tungsten, its NIR is greater than 50%.

Antimony is critical mineral used in the production of nuclear weapons, infrared sensors and explosive formulations. Enforcement agencies rely on germanium for surveillance and target acquisition as it is used in infrared imaging devices. Its other uses include fibre-optic cables and optical devices. 

Gallium is used in the sensors in space and defence systems. Tungsten is used for a variety of military applications, such as alloy bullets, shrapnel heads, balance pinballs in missiles and aircraft, artillery shells and armoured tanks. 

Almost 20% of the U.S.’s net imports of these minerals directly comes from China. Beijing also controls almost 30% of global exports of Antimony and Gallium. It also surpasses several other countries in terms of production and refining capacity of these minerals

Earlier this month, S&P Global reported that the Pentagon’s ability to replenish weapons stockpiles could come under pressure from shortages in some critical mineral markets as well as from China’s leverage over mineral supply chains.

Data for the charts were sourced from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, U.S. Department of Defence, United States Geological Survey (USGS) and Jewish Institute for National Security of America(JINSA

Published – March 25, 2026 07:30 am IST