How women voters are shaping State politics in 2026

Women voters have become a central point of discussion in elections in India in recent times. Rightly so, because parties in power roll out women-centric schemes, sometimes even direct cash transfer ones, to win their support. Opposition parties too make promises about initiating schemes for women’s welfare, if elected. These promises seem to making some impact, which is reflected in the rising turnout of women voters. Parties appear to have mobilised women through welfare schemes, and this mobilisation is seen as a key factor for electoral success.

The upcoming Assembly elections in Assam, Kerala, West Bengal and Tamil Nadu are unlikely to be different. Women, who constitute nearly half of the electorate in each State (and slightly more in Kerala), are a key focus of all political parties. Electoral trends show that while turnout has increased, women remain underrepresented in State assemblies. However, evidence from Lokniti-CSDS data suggest that their voting choices have somewhat shaped party strategies and political outcomes.

Across all four States, women’s voter turnout has remained high and largely stable over the past three decades, often matching or slightly exceeding men’s participation. The table below shows the gender gap in voter turnout in State elections. (+) indicates higher turnout of women compared to men, (-) indicates lower turnout of women.

In Assam, the gender gap narrowed from -1.48 percentage points in 1991 to +0.41 in 2021. Kerala shows a similar trend, with women voting at levels equal to or slightly higher than men. In 2016, women’s turnout surpassed men’s, with a gap of +2.17 percentage points. By 2021, the turnout was nearly equal, with a gap of +0.09 percentage points.

In West Bengal, women’s turnout remained slightly below men’s until 2011, when it surpassed men’s for the first time and maintained a marginal lead in the subsequent election (+0.38 percentage points in 2021). Tamil Nadu, historically lower in voter participation compared to other States, reached near parity by 2011, and women’s turnout has remained close to men’s turnout through 2021, with only a minimal gap of -0.27 percentage points.

Representation in Assemblies

While women have consistently shown high voter participation, converting this engagement into representation in State Assemblies remains a persistent challenge. Over the past three decades, the proportion of women elected to Assemblies in all four States have varied, but remained low.

In Assam, women’s representation rose from 3.97% in 1991 to a peak of 11.11% in 2011, but fell to 4.76% in 2021 (six of 126 seats). Kerala shows a relatively stable but persistently low level of women’s representation, with women legislators occupying between 5% and 9% of seats over the years. In 2021, only 11 women were elected, accounting for just 7.86% of the 140-seat Assembly.

West Bengal stands out for gradual gains rising from 7.14% in 1991 to 13.95% in 2016, and 13.61% in 2021. In 2021 about 40 women were elected to the 294-member Assembly, the highest among these States. Tamil Nadu presents the most volatile trajectory. Representation peaked at 13.68% in 1991 but fell sharply to 3.85% in 1996. In 2021, women’s representation stood at 5.13%, with 12 women elected to the 234-seat Assembly

On voting patterns

Survey-based estimates from Assembly election studies conducted by the Lokniti-CSDS provide insight into how women have voted over time. In Assam, there has been a clear shift. In 2011, the Congress led among women voters with 39% of women voting for them, while the BJP secured 10%. By 2021, the BJP-led alliance increased its women’s vote share to 44%. As shown in the table below, the Mahajot alliance also secured significant support, receiving 33% in 2016 and 41% in 2021, making the contest more competitive.

Kerala presents a closely contested pattern between the United Democratic Front (UDF) and the Left Democratic Front (LDF) with women’s support nearly equal in 2011 and 2016. In the 2021 Assembly elections, the LDF gained a modest advantage securing 45% of women’s votes compared to the UDF’s 41%. The BJP which contested independently in 2011 received 5% of the women’s votes. In 2016 and 2021, contesting as part of an alliance, its share rose to 12% and 11% respectively, but it remains a secondary player in a largely bipolar contest.

In West Bengal, the Trinamool Congress, whether contesting alone or in alliance, has consistently secured close to 50% of the women’s vote. The BJP, contesting independently in 2011 and 2016, received 4% and 10% of the women’s votes, respectively. By 2021, the BJP and its allies expanded sharply among women voters, receiving 36% of the votes, pointing to some restructuring of the electoral landscape.

Tamil Nadu shows alternating patterns between the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) and the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK). The AIADMK led among women voters in 2016 (46%), but the DMK alliance overtook it in 2021 with 45% compared to the 42% of the AIADMK and its allies.

Despite their high participation, women remain a small minority in State legislatures. Over the past three decades, structural barriers such as limited party nominations, competitive electoral dynamics and social and cultural constraints have constrained representation. Yet, their voting patterns increasingly shape party strategies and influence political contests.

Sanjay Kumar is a Professor and Political Analyst. Vibha Attri is a Research Associate at Lokniti-CSDS

Published – April 02, 2026 07:00 am IST