How one seat will test the MVA’s unity

On February 26, the Election Commission (EC) issued a notification for the election to 37 Rajya Sabha seats in 10 States. Of them, seven seats are from Maharashtra. Among those who will complete their tenures on April 2 this year are leaders like Nationalist Congress Party-SP (NCP-SP) president Sharad Pawar and Union Minister Ramdas Athawale. As political parties across alliances in Maharashtra try to gain the most at the negotiating table, the election to one Rajya Sabha seat is likely to test the fragile unity of the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA), a regional alliance of the INDIA bloc.

The major questions this election will raise for the MVA are whether the Congress will be willing to compromise at a time when both the Rajya Sabha elections and Legislative Council elections are to take place in Maharashtra; whether Uddhav Thackeray will forsake his party’s claim to the sole Rajya Sabha seat when his is the biggest party in the State’s Opposition; and what Sharad Pawar will decide. 

Negotiations are ongoing within the Mahayuti as well. While the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) wants four seats, the NCP has declared Parth Pawar’s (Ajit Pawar’s son) name. Eknath Shinde is keen to get two seats.

The MVA tussle

The battle within the MVA throws light on the aspirations of each of the three parties. It is defined by an undeniable shadow of distrust towards the NCP-SP, after talks of a merger with Ajit Pawar’s NCP were revealed. In Maharashtra, the NCP (earlier led by Ajit Pawar and now by his wife Sunetra Pawar) is in power with the BJP as part of the Mahayuti alliance. The NCP-SP (led by Sharad Pawar), on the other hand, is a part of the Opposition MVA, with Congress and Shiv Sena Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray (UBT).

While some leaders said that the death of Ajit Pawar had effectively halted the possibility of a merger, others questioned whether the Rajya Sabha seat will remain with the INDIA bloc in the future, if the NCP-SP decides to go ahead with the merger. “Even if Sharad Pawar himself may choose to stay with the MVA, what if his party goes ahead with the merger?” asked a leader. Some even raised concerns about Sharad Pawar’s health. He is currently recovering at a hospital in Mumbai. The NCP-SP counts on the heft of a national leader like Sharad Pawar to propose that his candidature alone can lead to an unopposed Rajya Sabha victory in the State.

Meanwhile, the Shiv Sena UBT is keen to take this Rajya Sabha seat for itself. It believes that since it is the largest party in the alliance, and had left its stake in 2019 to support Fauzia Khan (NCP-SP), it should be supported for this bid. While five leaders are in the fray, the preference seems to be for Priyanka Chaturvedi, whose term expires next month. “We have been a loyal partner in the INDIA bloc. We have taken up several national issues including the Adani-sation of Mumbai. Our presence in Rajya Sabha is crucial,” a Sena leader said. The Congress, on the other hand, feels the need to increase its presence in the Rajya Sabha to play an effective role as the national Opposition party. “For us, each seat in the Parliament matters to strengthen Mallikarjun Kharge ji,” a Congress leader said. The BJP has refrained from issuing any statement on the differences within the MVA so far. But the possibility of more candidates being in the fray will only nix the chances of unopposed elections, and will lead to complex number crunching in an open ballot election. 

A game of numbers

The number game in Maharashtra is quite clear. Rajya Sabha members are voted in by the MLAs of the State. In a House of 288, the actual strength today is 286. The election quota for the Rajya Sabha election in Maharashtra is 36. In the ruling Mahayuti, the BJP has 131 MLAs, Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde) has 57 MLAs, and NCP has 40. Along with smaller allies, the Mahayuti strength is 234. Effectively, it can easily elect six of the seven Rajya Sabha members. It will have a handful of excess votes too. On the Opposition side, the MVA can also elect one candidate on the basis of its cumulative strength if it sticks together. The Shiv Sena UBT has 20 MLAs, the Congress has 16 and the NCP-SP has 10. Along with the smaller allies, its total strength is 52. The final decision will now hinge on talks between the top three leaders of the MVA. The Opposition will be able to keep uncertainty at bay only if it can achieve consensus.