Going downhill: On the Iran war, U.S. strategy

President Donald Trump has made several self-contradictory statements ever since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on February 28, making it increasingly difficult to take anything that he says about the war seriously. In the early days, he insisted that the conflict would end soon, but it has now entered its second month. On March 21, he threatened to strike Iran’s power plants in 48 hours unless Tehran reopened the Strait of Hormuz. The waterway remains under Iranian control, and Mr. Trump has extended his deadline twice. Despite his repeated claims that U.S. forces destroyed Iran’s military capabilities, Tehran continues to attack U.S. bases in the Persian Gulf and Israel. Last week, U.S. media reported that an Iranian strike at the Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia damaged an elite E-3 Sentry AWACS aircraft and several KC-135 aerial refuelling tankers. Mr. Trump now says that his administration is in talks with Iran and a deal is possible. But Iran says that it has got a U.S. proposal to end the war and has made its counter-proposal. The U.S. wants Iran to abandon its nuclear programme, limit its missile programme and reopen the Strait; Tehran demands war reparations, guarantees against future attacks and an end to fighting on “all fronts”. Amid disputed claims about the talks, the U.S. is also sending more combat troops to West Asia in preparation for a possible ground attack.

Mr. Trump appears to have no easy exit. The Strait of Hormuz was open before he launched the war. Ending the conflict now while the waterway remains under Iranian control would seem like a defeat. The U.S. had a robust military footprint in the region. Today, most American bases in the Gulf have been battered. In Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s assassination voided his fatwa against the nuclear bomb, and its parliament is considering withdrawing from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Crude prices, under $80 a barrel before the war, are now hovering around $114 a barrel. Iran, which was under heavy sanctions, is making more money now because of the wartime sanctions relief. This war is already a disaster for the U.S., and Mr. Trump would worsen it by sending ground troops. The U.S. has not mobilised enough combat troops to launch a large-scale ground invasion. Many argue that the U.S. could try to seize some islands in the Gulf for leverage, but any attack would be extremely risky for both troops and the global economy. Mr. Trump’s escalatory rhetoric, including threats to strike Iran’s civilian infrastructure only underscores his desperation. Instead of digging deeper into the hole he has put himself in, he must start looking for a way out. A ground attack would close even the few remaining off-ramps he has.