​Fire and fury: on the ill-conceived war on Iran

Benjamin Netanyahu and Donald Trump have brought death and destruction to Asia and economic havoc on the whole world by launching an ill-conceived, illegal war on Iran on February 28. Twenty days on, Iran continues to fire missiles and drones at Israel and neighbouring Persian Gulf countries hosting U.S. bases. Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz, along with retaliatory strikes on oil and gas facilities in the Gulf countries, have driven up energy prices, threatening the global economy. The irony is stark: Mr. Trump, who won the presidency twice, campaigning on opposing America’s “forever wars”, has now led the U.S., at Israel’s behest, into another disastrous conflict. After the initial window for regime change closed, Mr. Trump sent mixed signals. He said he had authorised talks; when Iran refused, he ordered a strike on Kharg Island, the country’s main energy export terminal. Israel then escalated the conflict further by assassinating Ali Larijani, Iran’s Security Council Secretary and a key link between the Revolutionary Guards, who are leading the war effort, and the political establishment, as well as Iran’s Intelligence Minister and the commander of the Basij paramilitary force. On Wednesday, Israel crossed another red line by attacking Iran’s South Pars gas field, triggering Iranian strikes on energy sites in Qatar, the UAE and Saudi Arabia.

Many had warned even before the war began that an all-out attack on Iran could trigger a regional crisis. Mr. Trump, who until recently sought the Nobel Peace Prize, went ahead regardless. With over a dozen American soldiers killed, more than a hundred wounded, U.S. bases under attack, and rising oil, gas, and fertilizer prices, he now faces growing political backlash at home. On March 17, Joe Kent resigned as Director of the National Counterterrorism Center, claiming that the U.S. entered the war “due to pressure from Israel and its powerful American lobby”. It is now clear that Mr. Trump did not anticipate such a prolonged conflict. Even if Mr. Trump wants to declare victory and end the bombing, he faces two hurdles: Iran can continue attacking targets in the Gulf and Israel; and the Strait of Hormuz remains shut. If Mr. Trump prefers further escalation, he could end up sending ground troops to Iran, an extremely risky gamble, or expanding the war to the region’s energy infrastructure, a move that could cripple the global economy. The only viable option is diplomacy. Mr. Trump should engage Iran through a mediator with access to all sides and pursue a mutually workable deal. Tehran should stop holding the global economy hostage and reopen the Hormuz Strait as part of a ceasefire. A deal could still be possible if the U.S. offers credible guarantees against future American or Israeli aggression.