Ensuring federalism within delimitation – The Hindu

Article 81 of the Constitution states that seats should be distributed among States and within constituencies based on population such that “the ratio between the number and the population of the State is, so far as practicable, the same for all States”. That ratio was similar in 1951 and 1971, since State populations had not diverged much. However, that situation does not hold any longer.

As India has become the world’s most populous nation, and since Census 2026 is right around the corner, the delimitation exercise will also become due shortly. The 84th Constitutional Amendment Act, 2002 extended the freeze on the number of seats in Parliament and State Legislatures from 2000 to 2026, stating that, “keeping in view the progress of family planning programmes in different parts of the country, the government, …decided …as a motivational measure to enable the state governments to pursue the agenda for population stabilisation.” Hence, Lok Sabha seats shall “remain unaltered till the first Census to be taken after the year 2026.” The Census results will be declared by October 2028, after which the Delimitation Commission (DC) will be constituted. After the outcome is declared, the 2029 Lok Sabha elections will follow.

Equal share to all

Given the constitutional amendment, it is legitimate to consider how much convergence has been achieved between fertility rates over the last two decades. The author examined which States had achieved a Total Fertility Rate (TFR) needed to stabilise population growth, that is, 2.1 births per woman. The National Family Health Surveys (NFHS) were used for this analysis. As per the findings of the third NFHS (2005-6), which is the closest survey to the 2002 constitutional amendment, in 2005, nine States (Himachal, Punjab, Delhi, Goa, Andhra (including Telengana), Karnataka, Kerala, and Tamil Nadu) had achieved a TFR of 2.1 or less. By 2021, most major States had achieved a TFR of 2.1 except five States (Bihar, U.P., Jharkand, Meghalaya and Manipur).

Clearly, while there was an improvement in the TFR across the country, the mean TFR among States below the national TFR mean was 1.64, while the corresponding mean for States above the national mean was 2.38. Thus, those States which have a higher mean than the national mean, in the latest NFHS-5 (2019-21), are still 45% higher, with respect to fertility rates, than that of early achievers. Therefore, based on the 2002 constitutional amendment, and in light of this analysis, it is being suggested here that seat allocation should, post the 2026 Census, also be partially subject to this differential performance. However, how much weight should be given to States’ population stabilisation efforts in determining seat allocation in the delimitation exercise?

Here, the logic underlying the Finance Commission (FC) can be considered. The FC uses, in addition to total population size (50% weight), various other criteria for allocating finances to States such as demographic performance, which rewards States for improved population growth. The delimitation exercise could also reward/penalise States for demographic performance. To arrive at the number of seats allotted per State, the DC could propose the following based on population size and the Demographic Performance (DemPer) of States. 

No change is to be made to the seat allocation by State for the prevailing 543 seats in the Lok Sabha as of 2024; the DemPer principle can be applied only to the additional seats (over the existing 543), meaning that the population principle still remains overwhelmingly dominant. Moreover, there are dimensions to the DemPer principle — first, early achievement (TFR of 2.1 or less before 2005), should be given only 10% weightage in the estimation of seat allocation to a State, and second, the rate of decline in TFR between 2005 and 2021 should be given 90% weightage. The main outcome of the application of these principles is that all States experience an increase in the number of seats, with the more populous States receiving more seats in absolute terms than the less populous ones. This system also ensures that the share of States that performed well in bringing down population growth do not lose their seat share. This is fair federalism.

Upholding federalism

What the DemPer principle acknowledges is that States are meaningful political units, and that democracy is about fair voice, and not just raw numbers. Federal stability matters as much as electoral arithmetic. Applying DemPer to the Lok Sabha would balance democratic equality with federal fairness, reduce regional resentment, protect incentives for good governance, and improve the quality of representation without undermining legitimacy.

However, what is the ideal Lok Sabha size after expansion? The average population per seat in a State in 1971 was between 10 and 11.1 lakh. But then the total population of India was barely 541 million; it is now almost three times as large (1.4 billion). If India is to keep democracy vibrant with serious time allocated to deep debate, then the Lok Sabha size cannot be permitted to increase beyond 700. 

Moreover, the delimitation exercise should no longer be seen as a north-south matter. A host of States across India, such as Punjab, Haryana, Himachal, Goa etc., had adopted the goal of containing their population, not just the southern States. Therefore, fair federalism is critical to the survival our Union.

Published – March 31, 2026 02:10 am IST