El Nino on the horizon during monsoon months

There is a chance that the El Nino phenomonen — a warming of the Central Pacific Ocean frequently linked to weak monsoon rainfall in India — may occur after July this year, but clarity will only emerge in April, according to M. Mohapatra, director-general of the India Meteorological Department (IMD).

“ENSO-neutral conditions are likely to persist until July and there’s a probability it might move towards El Nino conditions,” he said on Saturday (January 31, 2026), during his monthly briefing on expected weather conditions in India in February.

An El Nino is defined as the Central Equatorial Pacific heating, on average, at least half a degree warmer than the average for five consecutive overlapping three-month periods. Historically, six out of 10 El Nino years have been linked to depressed rainfall over India. The El Nino is the converse of the La Nina – a half degree cooling – and the two are cyclical phenomena. The last global El Nino was during 2023-24, a year that saw rainfall below normal levels in India.

Risk of sub-par monsoon

The latest climate models show a greater than 50% chance of an El Nino appearing over India after June and increasing to nearly 70% during July, August, and September. July and August are the most important months of the summer monsoon.

Jatin Singh, chairman of private weather forecasting company Skymet, said that “early” climate models signal a likely El Nino in 2026, raising the risk of a “sub-par monsoon and drought conditions over India.”

El Nino forecasts made in February and March are generally prone to error, Mr. Mohapatra said, adding that those made in April are generally more accurate.

Dryer, hotter February expected

The IMD forecast said that below-normal rainfall is likely over most parts of the country in February, except in some areas of northwest and east-central India. Temperatures over most of India are likely to be on the higher side, except parts of southern India, the IMD added.

Rainfall in January was 31% lower than normal for the month.

“It’s been observed that snowfall during the winter months has been reducing… probably due to the impact of climate change,” Mr. Mohapatara added.