​Cowardly bully: On Donald Trump and the Iran war

Donald Trump’s decision to postpone attacks on Iran’s power plants, 36 hours after issuing a 48-hour ultimatum to Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, is the clearest sign yet that the war is not going according to his plan. Over the past week, Mr. Trump has declared victory, claiming that U.S. and Israeli strikes had destroyed Iran’s defence capabilities. Yet, Iran continues to launch missiles at Persian Gulf countries and Israel, while maintaining control over the Strait of Hormuz, which prevents Mr. Trump from extricating himself from a conflict whose economic costs are mounting globally. Since the war began on February 28, Iran has largely ignored Mr. Trump’s threats, responding to escalation with counter-escalation. When the U.S. bombed Kharg Island, Iran struck American bases in the region. When Israel targeted South Pars, Iran hit energy facilities across Qatar, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Israel. After the Natanz nuclear facility was struck, Tehran targeted Dimona, the Israeli town hosting its nuclear facilities. When Mr. Trump threatened strikes on Iran’s power plants, Tehran warned of attacks on Gulf and Israeli energy assets and U.S. financial interests, forcing him to make a U-turn.

Before the war began, the U.S. and Israel had set ambitious objectives: force Tehran to shut down its nuclear programme and ship out the highly enriched uranium, cut off Iran’s support for non-state militias in West Asia and dismantle its missile capabilities. Twenty-five days later, one of Mr. Trump’s key priorities is to open the Strait of Hormuz, which was closed only after the war broke out. He does not have easy options to do so — he has to either talk to Tehran and make a deal or authorise a ground operation; reports suggest the U.S. has already despatched thousands of marines. Yet, Mr. Trump’s U-turn on strikes on power plants indicates that he may be seriously weighing talks. Iran has dismissed Mr. Trump’s claims that negotiations are underway. But President Masoud Pezeshkian has outlined conditions for ending the war: guarantees against future aggression; reparations for infrastructure damage; and recognition of Iran’s ‘legitimate rights’ (which can be interpreted as sanctions relief). Mr. Trump, whose administration has already eased some sanctions on Iran’s oil, could be looking for a deal, and Tehran could reciprocate if common ground is found. But for any diplomatic effort to progress, Mr. Trump must first rein in his ally Israel, which continues to pound Iran and Lebanon like an unhinged bully. The military path that he has embraced is showing clear limits. The least damaging way out for Mr. Trump is to strike a deal with Iran and get out of this war.