Assam poll outcome hinges on parties reading the tea leaves right

The battle for the votes of the ‘tea tribes’ has animated the Assam Assembly election campaign as it enters the home stretch. The seven-million-strong community, including Adivasis who were brought by British planters from central India as well as those no longer associated with tea plantations, account for almost 20% of the voters in the State. The demand for Scheduled Tribe status for the OBC community has become the talking point, heightened by the visits of Jharkhand Chief Minister Hemant Soren to constituencies with tea tribe concentration.

On Sunday (April 5, 2026) in the Bishwanath constituency, Leader of Opposition in Lok Sabha Rahul Gandhi issued a targeted appeal. “We will provide ₹450 as daily wages to tea workers and grant Scheduled Tribe status to six communities [including tea tribes],” the Congress leader said, alleging that previous promises made by the current government had not been fulfilled. Incidentally, Mr. Soren was in Bishwanath the same day campaigning for Teharu Gour of the Jai Bharat Party, who is contesting on a Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) ticket. Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma ‘welcomed’ his Jharkhand counterpart, saying the latter would get an opportunity to witness first-hand Assam’s rapid development, especially in tea garden areas.

Assembly elections: Follow LIVE updates on April 6, 2026

Influential community

A major electoral determinant in over 35 of the State’s 126 seats across the tea-growing belts of eastern, northern, and southern Assam after delimitation, and influential in around 10 more, the tea tribes have been rewarded with eight candidates each by both the major players. The JMM is contesting 18 seats.

Several constituencies are set to witness direct BJP-Congress fights between prominent leaders from the tea tribe community: Dhiraj Gowala (BJP) and Pran Kurmi (Congress) in Titabor, Rupesh Gowala (BJP) facing off against Durga Bhumij (Congress) in Doomdooma; Krishna Kamal Tanti (BJP) against Kartik Chandra Kurmi (Congress) in Rangapara; and Rajdeep Goala (BJP) and Ajit Singh (Congress) in Udharbond.

The Opposition is trying to capitalise on the stalled ST status. The Congress made explicit mention of it in its ‘Raijor Istahar’ (people’s manifesto)” released on April 2, while Mr. Soren, in his rallies, makes sure to point out that most of the ethnic groups of the tea tribes are recognised as STs in Jharkhand, West Bengal, Chhattisgarh and Odisha, while Assam continues to classify them as OBCs.

The BJP’s ‘Sankalp Patra’, released on March 31, touts grant of land rights to over 3.5 lakh tea garden families and promises to raise minimum daily wages to ₹500 in a phased manner after having increased it by ₹30 effective April 1. On the contentious ST status, the party sought to do a balancing act by promising to “actively pursue the Central Government” to implement the recommendation of an Assam Group of Ministers (GoM) “while safeguarding constitutional, social and economic rights of existing ST communities”.

While the community has gradually veered towards the BJP since 2014, the Congress is betting on the Assam government’s “failure” on the wages and reservation fronts. “Their guarantees to increase wages to ₹351 and ST status have failed,” Mr. Pran Kurmi, the Congress contestant from Titabor, told The Hindu. “We lost 20-25 seats in Upper Assam by thin margins in 2021 but the alliance with Raijor Dal and Assam Jatiya Parishad is working in our favour this time,” he added.

Assembly elections: Follow LIVE updates on April 6, 2026

JMM in the fray

The JMM’s entry has muddied the picture for both main parties, especially with a faction of the All Adivasi Students’ Association backing it apart from the newly floated Jai Bharat Party. Jharkhand Cabinet Minister Chamra Linda, the party’s election in-charge for Assam, has been camping in Upper Assam for weeks. Mr. Soren has held rallies in Sonari, Tingkhong, Digboi, Golaghat and Ranganadi constituencies for party candidates.

“The tea tribe votes in this election are likely to be influenced by a combination of the same set of factors which has been holding sway over the community over the last decade or so. The perceived resolution of some of these might favour the ruling regime – such as raised wages, distribution of land rights, cultural preservation – whereas the continuing non-fulfilment of some can be used by the Opposition parties as grounds of mobilisation – such as non-granting of the long-demanded ST status and wage raise considered insufficient. JMM’s entry is specifically aimed at exploiting some of these points, but its reach might be limited due to the internal diversity of the tea tribe category and the existing party-wise alignment of the community,” said political scientist Kaustabh Deka, who teaches at Dibrugarh University.

Another researcher, who has worked extensively on the community, said on condition of anonymity, that the JMM might have a marginal impact, but there does not seem to be any overt current against the ruling party. “At the end of the day, people might be cautious and vote for the welfare benefits they have been getting,” the researcher said.

Published – April 06, 2026 07:44 pm IST