America is not winning Iran war; a ground attack would be complete insanity: Trita Parsi

What is your assessment of the way the conflict is unfolding? Are the United States and Israel losing the war?

The United States is not winning the war. The Israelis, however, are probably quite happy regardless. And I think this is important to understand because the objectives of Israel and the United States here are very different. And the costs the Israelis and the United States are willing to pay are very, very different. From the Israeli standpoint, they want this war to continue as long as possible, in order to degrade, if not destroy, Iran’s industrial base, its economic base, its diplomatic, political and military base, in order to set it back decades. This would shift the balance of power in the region in Israel’s direction. And it would deprive Iran of the ability to challenge Israel’s designs for regional hegemony for decades ahead. The Israelis are not looking for peace. They’re not looking for peace with any of their neighbours.

They’re looking to outgun them and have essentially in a dominant position to be able to essentially establish that hegemony. And they don’t care if this comes at the expense of regional stability, of global energy markets, the impact it has on Asia and on India, on Bangladesh and Pakistan and the Philippines. Nor do they even care what cost it inflicts on Trump and his presidency. Trump has a completely different objective: he wants to quickly turn this around into something that he can present as a victory and then pull out, probably get some sort of a deal with the Iranians. But he needs to essentially turn the luck around before the economic situation globally becomes so bad. 

The U.S. is the superpower here. Israel is the junior partner. Your argument is that the Israelis are driving the bus. Why? Why is Trump not able to rein Israel in?

The United States is capable of reining in Israel, and Trump himself has done so on a few occasions. What he’s not been able to do is to rein them in and then sustain that control over them. But unlike Biden, he actually has said no to them and forced them to do things that they didn’t want to do. For instance, when the Israelis attacked Doha last year, regional states put pressure on Trump, and he decided to rein in the Israelis. He even forced Netanyahu to read an apology to the Emir of Qatar from the Oval Office. When the Israelis denied that this had happened, the White House released the images that showed Netanyahu reading that apology to the Qatari leader. So he has the ability to do so. 

The question is, why is he not doing it quite yet? And I think part of the reason is he can rein in Israel right now, but he still doesn’t have his silver bullets in turning this war around. So I think that he’s trying to see how he can use Israel to get that military victory on the battlefield that enables him to say that he’s won this war and then rein in the Israelis, not to do so quite yet. And then the question is, of course, at that point, whether he will be able to sustain that pressure on the Israelis. If he had last time, when he stopped them in June 2025, and had sustained that pressure, the United States and Israel would not have been at war right now with Iran. But he let go of that pressure. And the Israelis very cleverly and effectively played Trump’s psychology, convincing him that it would be very easy to defeat Iran.

The quick victory the Israelis had promised didn’t materialise. Trump says he is holding talks with the Iranians. The Pentagon is also sending more troops to the region. Trump cannot declare victory and retreat if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. So what’s next? Do you think the U.S. will start a ground offensive? 

The more likely scenario is that yes, Trump will opt for one of these military options that are being presented to him. All of them, to the extent that I understand them, look like complete insanity. I do not see how it will turn things around. He is really betting that he will have the same type of truly remarkable success that he had in Venezuela. The Iranians prepared themselves very well between June and February, knowing very well that the United States and Israel were very likely to attack them again. And it appears that the Israelis and the United States actually did not prepare themselves sufficiently well.

Here’s where that is really problematic. If he does this, he will truly cross the Rubicon. And at that point, his off-ramps may actually be far fewer and far less attractive than the ones that he currently does have within sight. Because what has not happened yet is that not a large number of Americans have been killed in this war. If you were to walk around in any American city right now, you would have no idea that the United States just started a war of choice against a country of 93 million people. The pain is not yet really felt over here. It is felt in Asia. But if he goes in with ground troops, if he takes one of these islands, which probably will not be that difficult, keeping the island is a completely different story. Because once you are on the island, you’re stationary. The Iranians will rain missiles and drones on these forces. There will be a very large number of American casualties. That will dramatically change the atmosphere in the United States. And it will be much more difficult for him to claim that he has won this war because he took an island at the cost of 500 American deaths. So whatever difficulty he has now to declare victory, it’s actually quite feasible for him to do so at this point. Not that the rest of the world will believe that he won, but his base is still willing to believe that he won.

What is the practical off-ramp that Trump has today? The Iranians have reportedly rejected Trump’s proposal and made their own counter-proposal.

I would really take these public positions with a grain of salt. There may be desires on both ends, but it’s a very unwise strategy to negotiate this publicly. Serious negotiations will take place quietly, where they can actually show flexibility. I think it is clear that to end this war, the Strait of Hormuz needs to be reopened, and for the Strait of Hormuz to reopen, the Iranians will have to be offered real sanctions relief, permanent sanctions relief in many cases. The Iranians are already getting de facto and official sanctions relief. The U.S. has already lifted sanctions on Iranian oil on the waters because the U.S. is in even greater need than Iran in making sure that Iranian oil is on the market right now because of the economic squeeze that is taking place. And so this is astounding. 

We’ve never seen the United States take a measure of this kind. It would be completely inconceivable four weeks ago for anyone to suggest that this would happen, but it’s already happened. And then, de facto, they’re getting sanctions relief because they’re selling more oil than they did before at a higher price. Prior to the war, they sold about 1.1 million barrels at $65 with an $18 discount because of the sanctions, meaning $47. Now, at least as of three days ago, they were selling at $110 with a $2 to $4 discount. They’re making more money than they were before as a result of this. 

The idea that they would give this up and go back to being sanctioned is inconceivable. Trump can turn that into a victory by making sure that the Iranians would have to accept that half of those oil sales would have to be in the U.S. dollar rather than in yuan. So there’s a win there for the U.S. as well, ultimately. I think there needs to be a non-aggression pact between the United States and Iran, as well as their allies. Israel can no longer attack Hezbollah. Hezbollah can no longer attack Israel. And the same thing with Gaza and the West Bank. 

Will the Israelis accept it?

If the United States forces them to accept it, yes, they will. How is Israel going to conduct any of these wars without U.S. support, without U.S. armament, without the constant flow of munitions to Israel? Israel certainly could not have conducted this war in any way, shape or form against Iran without American help. If the U.S. pulls out, the Israelis are completely alone. Their air defence systems are already significantly degraded. The Iranians will shift all of their focus towards Israel. I don’t think they would withstand it for much longer at all. Now, of course, the Israelis have nuclear weapons, and that would potentially come into play in that type of scenario. But this would not be good for Israel either at the end of the day. 

So I think there is a pathway. It will be costly for both sides. Iran is going to have to make some concessions on the nuclear front. But it is better for them to do this now than to go through this phase of ground troops, which will be costly to both sides. 

The Israelis and the Americans are carrying out daily airstrikes on Iran. Do you think this is having any impact on Iran’s calculus? Or are they absorbing the costs of these ongoing aerial strikes while playing a long game?

I don’t think they’re playing the long game. I think they only have to play the longer game. They don’t have to play this for one year. They just need to be able to play this one week longer than Trump can. So the manner in which they’re squeezing the global economy is to make sure that this is not sustainable for the U.S. for a very long time. I think they can probably withstand this war for six months to a year, probably longer than they themselves thought at the beginning of this war. But I don’t think that would be good for them at all. I think it would be a disastrous situation for them. They’re pressuring the United States so that this war will come to a close relatively soon. 

So while they can outlast the United States on this, not because the United States is weaker militarily, but because politically, Trump cannot withstand this for much longer. That does not mean in and of itself that the Iranians are playing the long game or that they want this to go on for a year. I think the Israelis would be terribly happy if this went on for one year. 

But Israel is also taking huge hits. Israel is bombing Iran; it has started an invasion of Lebanon; It is also bombing Gaza–without facing any consequences. How long can they sustain this?

There’s a massive amount of military censorship that doesn’t allow for the world to see exactly what’s happening, not even for their own citizens to see what is happening. You can face prison sentences if you’re filming Iranian missiles striking Israeli cities. The same thing is true in Dubai as well. This is not sustainable for that society. I think part of the reason why it’s been sustainable so far is precisely what you pointed out. So many countries have been supporting Israel, protecting it diplomatically, protecting it militarily and politically, and making sure that Israel pays no international cost or price for the policies that it’s pursuing, despite the fact that Israel is pursuing these policies without any regard for how this is affecting many of these countries that are protecting Israel. 

And this is not just the United States. I mean, it’s pursuing this war, wants to prolong this war, is killing Iranian mediators in order to get Trump stuck in this war for much longer, despite the fact that this could be the end of Trump’s presidency. Similarly, with India, I have to say, India has a very strong relationship with Israel. Is Israel taking into account how this is affecting India’s economy? It doesn’t seem to be a particularly reciprocal relationship. So the mystery to me is not why Israel can do it. The mystery to me is why so many countries are continuing to protect Israel, whereas Israel is actually completely being inconsiderate of the interests of those countries.