A plausible three-cornered fight in Tamil Nadu

For the past one week or so, the political arena in Tamil Nadu has been dominated by reports of frenzied attempts to bring the fledgling Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), headed by popular film star Vijay, under the fold of the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AlADMK)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA). Talks of the TVK negotiating its entry into the NDA was laid to rest by party functionaries earlier this week. Leaders of the AIADMK and its ally, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which was said to be keen on roping in the TVK, also denied that talks were held in this regard. Political circles were abuzz with the speculation that the BJP was trying to bring the TVK into the NDA fold, as soon as the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) and the Congress signed an electoral pact on March 4, after days of uncertainty and hard bargaining.

When the talks between the Dravidian major and the national party were on, there was a lot of noise about the possibility of the Congress ditching its long-standing ally in favour of the TVK. Once this issue became irrelevant, media attention turned to the theory of TVK joining hands with the AIADMK and the BJP. In October 2024, Mr. Vijay said that he was open to not only an alliance, but also to the idea of sharing power.

Luring in the TVK

What fuelled speculation was the perception that given the arithmetic strength of the DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance (SPA), the NDA would not be able to defeat the SPA. This was based on the fact that in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the SPA secured 47% of votes polled while the AIADMK and its ally, the Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK) netted 23% and the BJP-led NDA, 18.24% (now, the DMDK is a constituent of the SPA). As per an estimate, even after giving allowance for the political developments for and against the SPA in the last two years, the NDA still requires a minimum of five percentage points to put up a tough fight. Only the TVK can bridge this gap in vote share.

Of course, another reason cited for the alliance is that all the three major parties — the AIADMK, the BJP and the TVK — have the same goal of defeating the DMK. After all, at one stage, the first two had openly courted the TVK. About 10 days after the tragic stampede at the TVK leader’s rally in Karur in September 2025, which claimed 41 lives, AIADMK general secretary Edappadi K. Palaniswami, during his visit to Namakkal, remarked that “a beginning” had been made for the alliance. He made this observation in reference to a few people holding up the TVK flag at the meeting.

Even as Mr. Vijay began holding interviews, on March 10, 2026, with aspirants for the Assembly election at the party headquarters in Panaiyur on the outskirts of Chennai, media circles were abuzz about alliance talks. Mr. Vijay’s scheduled visit to the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) office in New Delhi on March 15, 2026 was linked to the much-speculated deal. Even though the party’s high-level administrative committee chief coordinator K.A. Sengottaiyan on March 12 clarified that his organisation would go to the polls alone, political circles were agog with speculation that a majority of the TVK district secretaries supported joining the NDA. This was reportedly conveyed during a virtual interaction with the party general secretary ‘Bussy’ N. Anand. As of today, TVK’s office-bearers have not denied that any such interaction took place, even though they rebut reports of holding negotiations for the alliance.

‘Fancy offers’

Addressing a public meeting on March 17, 2026, TVK general secretary Aadhav Arjuna, regarded as one of the key functionaries of the party, claimed that “fancy offers” — 90 assembly seats and the post of Chief Minister for one half of the Assembly term of five years — had been made to his party but Mr. Vijay was “very firm” in rejecting them, and that the party would stand by religious minorities. But, he did not state who made the offer. On Wednesday evening, the TVK chief reiterated at an iftar event that his party would not compromise on secularism and social justice

Rajinikanth debunks TVK leader Aadhav Arjuna’s DMK threat claim

Even though there is still time for more alliance drama, a three-cornered fight looks imminent. As in the past, the third force is bound to be a disruptor. It is to be seen which formation — the SPA or the NDA — benefits from the solo performance of Mr. Vijay and his colleagues.