A betrayal foretold: on the U.S. and NATO alliance

The U.S. appears poised to break with 77 years of partnership with Western European nations under the security umbrella of NATO, especially after its President Donald Trump has said that he is “absolutely” considering withdrawing from the alliance, which in his view is a “paper tiger”. This and similar remarks by Mr. Trump have followed White House’s apparent frustration that European and other allies did not expediently send military assets into West Asia to assist the U.S. and Israel in their war campaign against Iran, particularly to secure safe passage for oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, currently under Tehran’s control. Mr. Trump has frequently complained about getting less from NATO than Washington was putting into it, saying recently to the media, “… it’s a one-way street”. He has further hinted that NATO may have become an ineffectual global force when he recently observed that Russian President Vladimir Putin also “knows” that NATO lacks teeth to defend its members — a comment that gains additional salience in the context of Moscow’s military aggression against Ukraine and its likely further military adventurism in the Baltic states region.

At the heart of the heightened tension in the U.S.-NATO relationship is Washington’s constant refrain that defence spending by its European partners has fallen short of expectations — even if the immediate trigger for talk of withdrawing from NATO is the Iran war context. A prior question of legality remains unanswered too: under section 1250A of the 2024 National Defense Authorization Act, signed into force by former President Joe Biden, no U.S. President may unilaterally withdraw from NATO; rather they would require either a two-thirds Senate supermajority or an act of Congress towards this end. In the longer arc of history spanning the two Trump terms, a split with NATO, a security alliance, might not be of the same order as the eviscerating institutions of global governance and cooperation, which include the WTO and UN system organisations. But it is part of Mr. Trump’s simultaneous pursuit of American global dominance and splendid isolation. On the one hand it may come as a relief to some that Mr. Trump’s inward turn, pulling the U.S. back from global collaborative engagements could leave a security vacuum that could be opportunistically exploited by middle powers. However, for the world at large, and from a growth and economic stability perspective, the shock of a partner-nation abandoning its commitments worldwide will likely lead to a recalibration of trust and strategic calculus, ultimately remaking the rules-based international order and the global balance of cooperation across emerging powers. In this new post-Pax Americana world, Europe, more than most, will have to reimagine its security paradigm from first principles.