Iran crisis shows fossil fuels-based energy system ‘is inherently volatile and unstable’

The last major UN climate conference (COP30 in Brazil) broke up without a breakthrough agreement on phasing out coal, oil and gas – but there were many positive developments, including commitments to boost financing for climate action, provide money for adaptation and fight climate disinformation.

The issue of the transition to a low-carbon global economy proved much thornier (as it has at all COPs) and many countries and civil society groups expressed their frustration at the lack of consensus on the issue.

That frustration has been channelled into the Transition Away from Fossil Fuels (TAFF) event, in Santa Marta, Colombia, which ends on Wednesday.

Described as a “coalition of the willing,” TAFF is believed to be the first international diplomatic meeting explicitly focused on the practicalities of moving beyond finite carbon-emitting fuels towards renewable energy sources.

More than 53 nations, across all regions and development levels, from both fossil fuel producer and consumer nations, joined representatives from academia, the private sector and civil society groups, to chart an ambitious path towards sustainable societies and economies.

New imperative

Although TAFF is not organised by the UN, senior officials from the organisation were invited to attend, including Selwin Hart, the Special Advisor to the Secretary-General on Climate Action and the Just Transition, who said that the current global energy crisis, brought on by the Iran conflict, has exposed the extent to which “a global energy system built on fossil fuels is inherently unstable, volatile and unreliable.”

Addressing the conference on Tuesday, Mr. Hart pointed out that three out of every four people live in countries that are net importers of fossil fuels, making them vulnerable to shocks that they did not create and cannot control. Ending that dependence, he said, is “a security imperative, an economic imperative and a development imperative.”

Renewables such as wind and solar, on the other hand, offer stability, sovereignty and control over one’s own energy future and represent the fastest and most cost-effective pathway to universal energy access. in a world where nearly 800 million people lack access to electricity. 

No turning back

“There are no embargoes, price shocks, tariffs or tolls on wind or sunlight, he said.

Mr. Hart warned that the political and economic forces opposed to the transition are actively working to delay and undermine the process, casting doubt on science, distorting economics, and undermining the integrity of climate information to protect the status quo and fossil fuel interests. 

The senior advisor called for the Santa Marta event to mark the beginning of a new model of cooperation and send a message that “the direction of travel is irreversible, and that this transition will be managed with purpose, partnership, and urgency”.

An economic tipping point

That sense of urgency, unparalleled in climate discussions, is tangible in Santa Marta, according to Martin Krause, the Director of the Climate Change Division at the UN Environment Programme (UNEP).

Mr. Krause, who took part in the conference, ascribes this sense of momentum to the intensely volatile nature of the energy markets and the real-world impact they are having. He thinks that it could mark a tipping point for the widescale adoption of renewables.

“We have seen over the last few years that renewables, especially solar and wind, are competitive in many markets and are often cheaper than most of the fossil fuel-based alternatives. So, we are seeing a very strong move towards electrification in entire economic sectors.”

Market-driven

The market, says Mr. Krause, is already moving, despite the perceived slow pace of progress in official climate negotiations, and citizens are paying attention. In some markets and countries the transition “is not being driven by policy anymore. It is being driven by the market. 

People now feel the difference at the gas station, but the crisis is also putting inflationary pressure on the price if food and many consumer products, because so many things depend on the price of oil and gas.”

Some particularly hard-hit countries, says Mr. Krause, “can barely afford to keep the air conditioner going, or keep the lights on, because they are so dependent on imported fossil fuels. They are realising that this is not a long-term solution to their economy.”