Today’s best MLB pitcher strikeout props: Back Astros starter against Blue Jays at plus odds

The Houston Astros look to complete a sweep when they host the Toronto Blue Jays at Daikin Park on Wednesday for the finale of their three-game series. Houston opened the set with a 7-0 triumph and posted its fourth win in five contests by defeating Toronto 5-1 on Tuesday. The Astros seek their season-high third consecutive victory when they send rookie Ryan Gusto (2-1, 3.18 ERA) to the mound for his third straight start after the 26-year-old right-hander began his major-league career with four relief appearances. Toronto will counter with Bowden Francis (2-2, 3.13).

The Astros-Blue Jays game is one of 15 on Wednesday’s full MLB slate. Elsewhere, the Boston Red Sox aim for their seventh win in eight contests when Sean Newcomb (0-2, 3.63) squares off against Emerson Hancock (0-1, 12.71) and the Seattle Mariners; the Arizona Diamondbacks attempt to post a third straight victory as Eduardo Rodriguez (1-2, 4.09) hosts Taj Bradley (2-1, 5.24) and the Tampa Bay Rays; and Freddy Peralta (2-1, 1.91) and the Milwaukee Brewers visit Logan Webb (2-1, 2.40) and the San Francisco Giants.

For the Houston-Toronto matchup, sportsbooks have set Francis’ total strikeout player prop at 4.5, while Gusto’s is 3.5. Both props rate highly on the SportsLine Projection Model’s five-star scale. According to the model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, Gusto Over 3.5 strikeouts rates as a 5 and Francis Over 4.5 rates as a 4.5.

In addition to those two props, the model has found another with value for Wednesday. Here they are:

Tomoyuki Sugano Over 3.5 strikeouts (+113) vs. Nationals (6:45 p.m. ET)

Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 4.6 strikeouts

Sugano has recorded more than three strikeouts in just one of his first four major league starts after starring for the Yomiuri Giants of Nippon Professional Baseball’s Central League in his native Japan for 12 years. The 35-year-old righty fanned only three batters across 11 2/3 innings in his last two outings after registering four strikeouts over 5 1/3 frames against the Kansas City Royals on Apr. 5. But if Nathaniel Lowe is in the lineup for Washington on Wednesday, Sugano has a chance to go Over this number. Even though he belted a two-run homer in the series opener, Lowe struck out in his other three at-bats and ranks in the top 10 in the National League with 29 strikeouts. 

Ryan Gusto Over 3.5 strikeouts (+105) vs. Blue Jays (7:40 p.m. ET)

Rating: 5 stars
Model projection: 4.8 strikeouts

Toronto batters haven’t gone down on strikes very often this season, as the team is tied for 27th in the major leagues with 172 strikeouts. However, Houston pitchers fanned 11 Blue Jays in the series opener and registered seven strikeouts on Tuesday. Gusto had only two strikeouts over five innings against the San Diego Padres in his last outing but whiffed six batters across four frames versus the Los Angeles Angels in his first career major-league start. He also recorded four strikeouts in relief twice this month, working a total of five innings in those appearances. 

Bowden Francis Over 4.5 strikeouts (-112) vs. Astros (7:40 p.m. ET)

Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 5.5 strikeouts

Francis has gone Over this number in each of his last three starts, registering six strikeouts in 5 1/3 innings against the New York Mets before recording five versus both the Baltimore Orioles (5 2/3 frames) and Seattle Mariners (six). The 29-year-old right-hander’s first major league start came against the Astros in his 2024 season debut, and he fanned seven batters over 5 1/3 innings. Houston has been susceptible to strikeouts in this series, whiffing nine times in Monday’s opener and eight more yesterday, so Francis has a solid opportunity to notch at least five strikeouts for a fourth straight time.