Kerala Assembly Elections 2026: Tight three-way contest keeps all camps on edge in Aranmula

The road from Prakkanam winds through a restless stretch of hills, flanked by dense rubber plantations that seem to close in from both sides. A few hundred metres from the junction at Valiyavattom, a group of women wait beside a roadside chapel, shifting uneasily in the stifling afternoon heat. It is 3 o’ clock, and the air hangs heavy with expectation.

Suddenly the announcement vehicle is heard, punctuated by the steady beat of drums. The sky turns a dull grey as the convoy of Abin Varkey, the United Democratic Front (UDF) candidate in Aranmula, rolls in. There is little time to pause. A quick reception and a handful of greetings later, he is on the microphone. His pitch is direct and pointed, targeting ‘a decade of failed governance under the Left Democratic Front (LDF).’

“My hope rests on this turnout,” Mr. Varkey says, gesturing towards the crowd, largely made up of women. “This is what we are seeing everywhere. Anti-incumbency is evident, particularly against sitting MLA and Health Minister Veena George.” Around him, a group of energetic Kerala Students Union (KSU) workers mirror that confidence. Mr. Varkey, a Youth Congress leader, feeds off their energy as the convoy pushes ahead even as the sky darkens further.

A few kilometres away at Mannumbhagom, near Elanthoor, the mood is different but no less charged. Kummanam Rajasekharan, the Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) veteran candidate, is attending a family convention. A light drizzle sets in, but a group of youngsters cut through it with a vanchippattu (boat song) and welcome the candidate in traditional style. Soon, the drizzle turns into a steady downpour, winds picking up, but the candidate remains firmly in campaign mode.

“So tell me, how many votes are there in total in booth number 134, and what exactly is our share?” he asks. “The booth has around 800 votes, and we expect about 350,” comes the reply. But Mr. Rajasekharan is not convinced. “Be specific. I do not want approximate figures,” he says sharply.

A serious challenge

The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) senses an opening. With a strong base among the Nair and Ezhava communities and signs of a shift among sections of Christian voters in Central Travancore, the BJP believes it can mount a serious challenge. Mr. Rajasekharan’s visibility during the anti-airport agitation in Aranmula continues to add to his recall value on the ground.

At Thonniyamala, near Kadammanitta, the landscape tells a story of disruption. The rain has just eased, leaving behind fallen trees, snapped power lines and damaged plantain farms. Yet, the mood among the LDF workers is anything but subdued.

The LDF candidate, Veena George, arrives amid a loud motorcade, red flags cutting through the fading light. She heads straight to a nearby gospel church, stepping briefly into a quieter space within a noisy campaign. “All our blessings are with you,” the pastor says, raising his hand. Ms. George bows slightly. The Pentecostal community, which holds a significant presence here, has largely backed the LDF.

Soon, she is on the microphone, shifting the focus to governance. “When I first contested, Thonniyamala had little access to the outside world. Today, there are roads and electricity, and work is progressing to improve drinking water access,” she says, framing the election as a choice between continuity and change.

As her convoy moves on and darkness begins to settle, the contest in Aranmula remains finely poised.

Not a predictable contest

With just days left for polling, Aranmula is no longer a predictable contest. What once appeared straightforward has tightened into a sharply fought battle. One of Kerala’s largest constituencies, Aranmula has over 2.14 lakh voters. In 2021, it recorded the highest electorate in the State, with more than 2.37 lakh voters. And its vast and varied terrain has forced candidates to compress outreach into tight, high intensity schedules.

The constituency has rarely followed a straight political script. Following the reorganisation of the constituency in 2008, the UDF secured the seat in 2011. The LDF then turned the tables in the next two elections, while the UDF has continued to hold an edge in the Lok Sabha and local body polls.

Published – April 06, 2026 10:17 am IST