AIADMK hopes to take advantage of ‘anti-incumbency’, solid vote base in coastal districts

The AIADMK has mounted an unusually intense campaign in the Cauvery delta districts of Mayiladuthurai and Nagapattinam, reading the electoral terrain as more favourable than the 2021 verdict might suggest. Contesting directly in four of the six Assembly segments across the two districts — while ceding the remaining two to its NDA allies — the party is banking on a combination of a good vote base, perceived anti-incumbency, and micro-level mobilisation to tilt the scales in its favour.

In 2021, the AIADMK in four seats in these districts and won only in Vedaranyam. However, party strategists point to the narrow margins of defeat in the remaining constituencies as evidence that its core support remains intact. The inference within the party is that even a marginal swing could alter outcomes in at least a few segments this time.