Iran may be losing the battles, but it might still win the war

President Donald Trump’s address to the nation on the war with Iran on April 1 was brief and offered little that was new. There was anticipation that he might announce either a major escalation — such as a ground war — or declare victory and a ceasefire. Neither happened. Instead, he justified the U.S. strikes as aimed at eliminating Iran’s ability to acquire nuclear weapons and project power beyond its borders. He also stated that regime change was not his goal. He claimed that Iran’s capabilities were mostly destroyed and that he would target Iran’s industrial and power infrastructure. Along with regime change he has now abandoned the freeing of the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran remains resilient

Contrary to Mr. Trump’s claims, it is clear that Iran is neither on the verge of collapse nor prepared to concede. On the contrary, Tehran has demonstrated that it retains multiple instruments of retaliation, and the capacity to escalate horizontally — striking back against U.S. bases and its regional adversaries while blocking 25% of the global supply of oil and gas.

From the outset, this writer has argued, in the global media, that the U.S. and Israel will most certainly secure tactical victories. They will be able to degrade Iran’s military capabilities and its industrial capacity, and even kill many Iranians, but they would struggle to achieve their broader strategic objectives. These goals — particularly regime change — are unattainable without a large-scale ground invasion that could cause huge American casualties.

Several respected voices reinforce this assessment. Sir Alex Younger, former head of MI6, Ross Harrison of the Middle East Institute, and former Central Intelligence Agency Director John Brennan have all warned that while the U.S. may achieve tactical successes, there is no clear pathway to strategic victory.

Four key factors help explain why Tehran is outperforming expectations in this conflict.

The first is regime resilience and strategic consolidation. The Iranian regime has demonstrated a level of resilience that was significantly underestimated by Israeli and American planners. It has been reported that Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had persuaded Mr. Trump that the regime was very weak and that a massive decapitating attack would trigger a popular uprising and topple it within weeks. Yet, the Iranian regime is surviving, and its most powerful element, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which functions as both the sword and the shield of the Islamic Republic, has consolidated its hold over Iran’s political and military apparatus. By hiding military assets and delegating operational authority down the chain of command, Iran has survived the decapitation strategy. Moreover, by assassinating leaders such as Ali Larijani, Israel has sidelined moderates and empowered hardliners such as Mojtaba Khamenei.

The second is horizontal escalation and economic leverage. Iran has demonstrated the ability to expand the conflict horizontally. Tehran’s response to the attack has been to regionalise the war by targeting U.S.-aligned Arab states. Key civilian energy infrastructure has been damaged, tourism has suffered, and their sense of safety has been shaken. By choking the traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, Iran has constrained the global supply of oil and gas, triggering inflationary pressures across the global economy. If these conditions continue to prevail, several Asian economies that depend on the Gulf for energy will face severe economic hardship.

The third is strategic miscalculation in Washington. The growing confusion about the purpose and conduct of the war in Washington is also why Iran is enjoying the upper hand. By privileging Mr. Netanyahu’s exhortations over the net assessments of America’s own intelligence agencies, Mr. Trump overestimated the effectiveness of air power and underestimated Iran’s capacity to endure sustained pressure. It is becoming apparent that pre-war Israeli intelligence was wrong. A recently reported tense phone call between U.S. Vice-President J.D. Vance and Mr. Netanyahu underscores this point, revealing internal U.S. frustration and a growing recognition within the Trump administration that it was manipulated by Israel into this war.

The fourth is allied reluctance and regional blowback. The U.S. is increasingly isolated, with both its allies and regional partners refusing to join its war effort. America’s North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) allies have largely treated this as solely Washington’s war. Meanwhile, the U.S.’s partners in the Gulf are deeply uneasy. Having allowed American forces to operate from their territory, they now find themselves exposed to Iranian retaliation. Iran’s ability to exert pressure through threats to energy flows and regional stability has given Tehran significant leverage and strategic confidence. Regional states are also signalling declining confidence in the U.S. and exploring alternative pathways such as the Islamabad quadrilateral dialogue (Pakistan, Türkiye, Saudi Arabia and Egypt) to end war.

Tactical losses, strategic advantage

The superior military power of the U.S. and Israel will continue to deliver tactical victories and inflict damage on Iran and its people. However, Iran continues to resist and retaliate. The longer the conflict endures, the more economic strain, global instability, and declining domestic support will weigh on Washington. Iran is simultaneously regaining economic breathing space through oil exports and earning strategic respect across parts of the Global South. If negotiations actually happen, Tehran is likely to enter them with greater confidence and leverage.

If the Iranian regime survives, even a battered and weakened Iran would declare victory — because Mr. Trump’s stated goal was unconditional surrender and regime change, and that appears increasingly unlikely.

Muqtedar Khan is Professor of International Relations at the University of Delaware, a Senior Non-Resident Fellow at the Middle East Policy Council, and the host of the YouTube channel, ‘Khanversations’, on global affairs

Published – April 04, 2026 12:08 am IST