Kerala Assembly Elections 2026: The social engineering behind Kerala’s electoral battle

In Kerala, elections are as much about society as they are about politics. With the State approaching another Assembly polls, parties are once again redrawing invisible lines, competing to secure the trust of communities and set the direction of social change.

One of the most-telling signs of this churn emerged during the local body elections in December 2025, when central Travancore witnessed an unusual political experiment. The Bharatiya Janata Party fielded a new crop of young Catholic candidates in a region where the community has long held electoral influence. Though Christian candidates have been a familiar presence in Kerala politics, the timing of this move stood out. It came in the immediate aftermath of the arrest of two Catholic nuns in Chhattisgarh on charges of forced conversion, an incident that had unsettled the community.

Electorally, the move did not yield much results, with most of these candidates failing. But politics is rarely about immediate victories alone. The signal the BJP sought to send was clear and its implications are now being closely watched by rival fronts.

For the BJP, the focus in the State has clearly expanded beyond its traditional Hindu base, which comprises around 53% of the total population. The party has turned its attention to Catholics (40% of the total Christian population) in central Travancore, attempting to build bridges in a region where it has historically struggled. The outcomes in constituencies such as Kanjirappally and Pala, where Union Minister George Kurian and party leader Shone George have been fielded respectively, are expected to serve as a test of this outreach.

Negotiated power sharing

“A section of the Syrian Catholic community, including some within the clergy, despite allegations of attacks on Christians and the weaponisation of laws to intimidate minorities, does not seem averse to engaging with the Sangh Parivar. Their focus appears to be on entering the political mainstream through negotiated power sharing. This is something we have consistently flagged within the Church,” said a senior functionary of the Syro Malabar Church, the largest Eastern Catholic Church in Kerala.

At the same time, the BJP has also been working to redraw caste equations by aligning with organisations such as the Sree Narayana Dharma Paripalana (SNDP) Yogam through the Bharat Dharma Jana Sena (BDJS). The effort is aimed at loosening the traditional grip of the Left and the Congress over Ezhava votes, while also attempting to move beyond its conventional base, particularly the Nairs.

LDF’s outreach

If the BJP is attempting to widen its social base, the Left Democratic Front (LDF) has re-calibrated its own equations. In a notable shift, it has intensified its outreach towards dominant Hindu caste groups such as the Nair (12%) and Ezhava (23%) communities with Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan himself maintaining close engagements with leaders of the Nair Service Society and the SNDP Yogam.

“The Left’s focus has shifted towards dominant Hindu castes, following a realisation after the 2024 Lok Sabha elections that minority communities were drifting away. The conduct of the Global Ayyappa Sangamam at Pampa was a significant step in this direction. Notably, the Chief Minister has not distanced himself from the SNDP Yogam leadership even amid criticism over sharp communal remarks,” pointed out a senior LDF leader.

The United Democratic Front (UDF) is also actively engaged in this high stakes contest. While the Congress, with leaders such as Ramesh Chennithala, V.D. Satheesan and K.C. Venugopal, remains a strong contender to project a Nair Chief Minister in the coming years, the party does not enjoy consolidated support from the community. This has prompted the coalition to negotiate alignments with various community groups while strengthening its outreach among marginalised sections.

Sunny Joseph’s appointment

The appointment of Sunny Joseph as president of the Kerala Pradesh Congress Committee (KPCC) is seen as a key move to rebuild the Christian connect of the Congress as well as the UDF. At the same time, indications suggest that sections of Dalit and tribal communities may be tilting towards the front in this election cycle. “Their engagement with groups led by tribal leader C.K. Janu and Dalit thinker Sunny M. Kapikkad seems to have worked in their favour,” notes a veteran Congress leader.

Muslim votes

Then comes a crucial factor in Kerala’s electoral arithmetic, the consolidation of Muslim votes. “The UDF has by and large succeeded in consolidating Muslim votes in the northern districts, which proved decisive in its victory during the local body elections,” he adds.

Beyond the traditional fronts, different other models of social engineering have also taken shape. The Twenty20, backed by the Kitex group, has carved out a niche by blending welfare delivery, local development and an apolitical image, building a constituency that cuts across conventional caste and community lines. However, with the party now formally aligning with the BJP-led alliance, questions remain over how far it can retain support across religious groups.

Not entirely new

Seasoned observers point out that this strategy of social engineering is not entirely new. Varughese George, veteran socialist leader and currently secretary general of the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), believes the era of K. Karunakaran as Chief Minister marked the beginning of structured social engineering in electoral politics. “Karunakaran, a master politician, understood how to sustain political momentum. He cultivated close ties with community organisations such as the Nair Service Society and the SNDP Yogam,” he notes.

P. Sanal Mohan, social scientist, however, traces the roots even deeper into Kerala’s social history. “While leaders of upper caste organisations largely aligned with the Congress, inspired by the anti-colonial nationalism, a significant section of Dalits gravitated towards the communists. Over time, as the Congress lost its grip over various communities and the Left evolved into a more middle class party, the BJP emerged, inviting smaller communities to participate in its version of nationalism,” he explains.

‘Under test’

He adds that Kerala’s long standing democratic socialist consensus is now being tested. “However, community organisations are increasingly moving away from this consensus in their bid to align with a broader Hindutva mainstream. This represents a complex and ongoing social churn. Practical political and ideological struggles are required to counter this by refocussing on humanist values. Progressive forces have to do this,” he says.

Published – April 03, 2026 08:54 am IST