Power, petroleum and policy in focus at Future Career Conversations

As global fault lines deepen and old alliances shift, policymake,rs are being forced to rethink strategy in real time. At a panel discussion on “Policy Frameworks in Times of Geopolitical Uncertainty”, held as part of the Future Career Conversations Series, experts unpacked how energy, geopolitics and foreign policy were increasingly intertwined in shaping the global order. Moderated by Stanly Johny, International Affairs Editor at The Hindu, the session brought together Air Marshal M. Matheswaran (retd.), Commodore R.S. Vasan (retd.), and veteran journalist Nayanima Basu.

Energy as leverage

A key thread running through the discussion was energy security. With India importing nearly 85% of its oil, panellists noted that vulnerabilities have only intensified since the Ukraine war, which disrupted established supply chains and altered global energy flows. The conversation pointed to a larger strategic shift, where control over energy resources is closely tied to global influence. The United States, now among the largest producers of petroleum and LNG, was seen as repositioning itself to exert greater control over energy markets and, by extension, the global financial system through the dominance of the petrodollar.

The limits of global power

Air Marshal Matheswaran, former Deputy Chief of the Integrated Defence Staff and founder-chairman, The Peninsula Foundation, placed the concept of oil supremacy in a broader historical context, arguing that no superpower remains dominant indefinitely. Drawing parallels with past empires, he suggested that global powers often overextend, particularly when military and economic ambitions outpace sustainability. The post-Cold War order, he indicated, reflects such patterns, with attempts to consolidate dominance now intersecting with rising resistance from other powers.

The panel also examined the unpredictability of contemporary economic policy, particularly in the context of tariffs. Commodore Vasan, director-general of the Chennai Centre for China Studies and the regional director at National Maritime Foundation, Tamil Nadu, pointed out the lack of continuity in policy approaches, especially under leaderships that rely on rapid shifts and tactical decisions. This, he suggested, complicates long-term planning for countries like India, which must navigate an increasingly volatile trade environment.

Rethinking the neighbourhood

Author and journalist Nayanima Basu brought the focus closer to home, arguing that India’s immediate neighbourhood has undergone significant changes that are often under-acknowledged. From Afghanistan to Bangladesh, evolving political realities demand more nuanced engagement. She cautioned against viewing regional developments through outdated frameworks, stressing the need for consistent diplomatic outreach. Decisions such as restricting visas in the wake of regime changes, she implied, risk limiting India’s long-term strategic space. At the same time, she argued that India must strike a balance, working with global powers like the United States while maintaining independent positions on sensitive issues.

Across the discussion, one idea remained constant: energy remains the lifeline of modern economies, and disruptions in supply chains will continue to shape geopolitical tensions in the years ahead.

For India, the path forward lies in managing this uncertainty, through diversified energy sourcing, strategic autonomy, and a clearer articulation of its role in an increasingly contested global order.