The burden of the new Bihar Chief Minister

The ‘end of an era’ is a cliché deployed ad nauseam for the political transition Bihar is set to witness as it awaits a new Chief Minister. However, there are several prisms through which to evaluate this change.

The most significant of these is the shift in the command centre. Thirty six years after Lalu Prasad Yadav took office in 1990, breaking what had largely been a Congress continuum, the Chief Minister’s seat is returning to a national party. Delhi, not Patna, will now call the shots. Whoever is chosen for the Chief Minister’s chair will no longer be the final arbiter. He, or possibly she, will have to heed the leadership in Delhi. The political longevity that both Lalu and Nitish Kumar enjoyed is not something the incoming Chief Minister will inherit. They will have to guard their flanks, and watch for other aspirants who will be waiting for them to slip.

Imposing legacies

In his campaign speeches, Nitish Kumar often spoke of “Bihar kya tha” (what Bihar once was), invoking the alleged dark past of the State. This spectre of the ‘Jungle Raj’ cannot be deployed anymore. In the post-Nitish era, his successor’s tenure will no longer be contrasted with the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) government led by Lalu Prasad Yadav; instead, it will be assessed against the 20 year-rule of Nitish Kumar. Having long feted Nitish Kumar as sushasan babu (the governance man), it will be difficult to sustain or surpass that narrative.

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If Lalu Prasad Yadav addressed caste injustices, restoring dignity to marginalised communities, Nitish Kumar articulated a politics of Bihar asmita (identity), seeking to restore the State’s pride among Biharis within and outside its borders. The new Chief Minister will need to shift into third gear, and address Bihar’s most pressing problem: migration.

It is no longer enough that lower castes have found a voice or that the State has gained a measure of dignity through infrastructure development. The new Chief Minister must ensure that those born in Bihar also have the option to live and work there, without needing to go away in search of livelihoods. According to the 2011 Census, nine million people born in Bihar work outside the State, a figure that could rise in the latest enumeration.

Moreover, between the Lalu and Nitish governments, a precarious caste and communal balance was maintained. The RJD has often been derisively dismissed by its opponents as a Muslim-Yadav party. What is frequently overlooked is that Muslims and Yadavs were not natural allies. In fact, in several of Bihar’s infamous riots, including the Bhagalpur riots, the two communities were on opposing sides. This alliance was crafted by Lalu Prasad through a combination of outreach and the promise of a meaningful stake in governance.

While the Nitish Kumar-led Janata Dal (United) (JD(U)) did not consistently secure the electoral endorsement of Muslims, the community did not feel threatened under his rule. Bihar has, by and large, maintained communal peace.

Sustaining this equilibrium will be a challenge for a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led government.

Challenges and hopes

With the BJP at the helm, social anxieties over reservation could resurface. Some signs are already visible. On March 18, over 1,000 students from various organisations took to the streets, demanding that the University Grants Commission (UGC) Equity Rules, which had been stayed by the Supreme Court, be implemented without delay. The onus is on the BJP to select a Chief Minister who can offer a reassuring counter-narrative.

In a post-Nitish Bihar, possibilities also abound. Between the forward-caste-dominated BJP and the Yadav-dominated RJD, there are numerous smaller caste groups who lack a natural political home. In Nitish Kumar’s absence, the JD(U) may not provide a stable base for these communities. This creates an opportunity for the Congress to fill the vacuum. However, it can emerge as a viable alternative only if it breaks out of the RJD’s shadow and functions as an independent force rather than as an ancillary party.

On March 30, Nitish Kumar resigned from the Bihar Legislative Council. He is set to take oath in the Rajya Sabha by April 10. Belying expectations, there were no protests within the JD(U), and so far, the transition appears smooth.

But the real test of whether this stability will endure is only beginning.