The West Asia cauldron of conflict and its fallout

West Asia is currently enmeshed in what is essentially Benjamin Netanyahu’s war, aggravated by Donald Trump’s folly, lending itself to large-scale devastation. The conflict that began on February 28, 2026, when the United States and Israel launched large-scale joint military operations against Iran, is still continuing. What appeared to be a limited confrontation earlier in June (the 12-day war in June 2025) may now be seen as a kind of curtain raiser for this — the more devastating conflict taking place now. Titled ‘Operation Epic Fury’, the human cost of the war has been colossal, apart from other types of collateral damage. With several thousand Iranians killed, more than half of them civilians, it is apparent that the U.S. and Israel are preparing for a long campaign and, incidentally, in course of time, to commit troops on the ground. The world, nevertheless, needs to prepare for a long-drawn-out conflict

Iran survives the onslaught

To date, despite the widespread disruption and devastation, including the assassination of senior Iranian leaders such as Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and National Security Chief Ali Larijani among others, Iran has not only survived but its uranium stockpile also remains safe. Iran appears ready for an extended war. Also, Iran hopes to get its own back on the U.S., Israel, and their allies in the region by provoking a serious oil crisis through a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly 30% of the world’s shipment of oil passes. There has been other collateral damage as well, including the fact that many U.S. allies in Europe and elsewhere have openly refused to respond to Mr. Trump’s plaintive appeal for help in opening the Strait of Hormuz, even as Iran has made a tempting offer of safe passage (through the Strait) for countries friendly to it. Having survived the initial onslaught of the combined forces of the U.S. and Israel, Iran is now beginning to raise the stakes, at least as far as the U.S. is concerned, by calling for an American commitment to withdraw its bases in West Asia, to restrain Israel and arrive at an armistice of sorts.

Most experts believe that, if anything, time is on the side of Iran. Despite all the fire and fury visited on Iran in the first month of the conflict, and despite the loss of its top leaders, Iran has not only survived but has also managed to hit back, though with lesser intensity. The regime’s command structure has been disrupted, but a collapse of the Iranian state has not occurred. On the other hand, for the U.S., its strategy of saturation bombardment from the air is leading to certain other repercussions, in terms of both cost and replenishments of key weapons such as Patriot missiles, Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) Interceptors, Tomahawk cruise missiles and the like. Within the U.S., more so among sections of the U.S. Navy, signs of war weariness appear to have set in; while it is possible to overstate its significance, it cannot be ignored. In this respect, Israel’s strategy of containing the threat posed by Iran, while firing from Mr. Trump’s shoulders, may have gone awry. It would seem that the conflict has upended the Thucydides aphorism that “the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must”, for in the present case, Iran has refused to accept suffering without hitting back with full ferocity. Notwithstanding this, the U.S. and Israel display few compunctions in persisting with a conflict that is focused ‘on extracting advantage, rather than in underwriting order’.

‘Netanyahu’s war’ escalates

This is undoubtedly Mr. Netanyahu’s war, and while standard declamations may continue to be made, it is apparent that Mr. Netanyahu’s plans to decimate Iran with the aid and the support of the U.S. has gone wrong. What is surprising also is that, apart from U.S. support to Israel’s devious plans, much of the rest of the civilised world has not upbraided Israel for embarking on a patently illegal conflict, which has no merit whatsoever. The world continues to remain a mute spectator, notwithstanding the price it is paying due to the escalating cost of oil.

Israel’s obsession about seeking fulfilment of the ‘Biblical Promise of the chosen land’, notwithstanding the huge cost in human and economic terms, is unfortunately proving costly for the world at large as well. However, Israel remains adamant in pursuing the war with little regard for the costs involved, and, with Mr. Trump’s backing, hopes to expand the ambit of the conflict across West Asia to include Lebanon, Iraq, and Syria. All this, despite the already apparent severe maritime disruptions and retaliatory steps taken by Iran such as the closing of the Strait of Hormuz.

The Iran war today has entered a phase of ‘no peace, no large-scale war’, one defined not merely by military confrontation but through the weaponisation of the infrastructure underpinning the global economy. Energy prices, shipping lanes and logistical systems provide the essential backdrop to the current conflict and are, in a sense, central to the strategy of those involved. The U.S. has far more to lose than Israel if the world plunges into prolonged chaos — but the economies of most nations across the globe are already being, and would continue to be, adversely affected by the disruption of the oil economy and its fallout in every sphere.

Notwithstanding the opinion of military experts that Israel’s objective of effecting a regime change in Iran is impossible without a ground invasion, Israel is pursuing such an objective with vigour. Neither the U.S. nor Europe display any enthusiasm for this. The economies of most nations concerned are, once again, in no position to undertake such a conflict — including the U.S. Both China and Russia are almost certain to oppose it. A war of this kind is, moreover, certain to throw up many other issues often lost sight of in the Councils of the World. The fact that Iran is a large country is often ignored, as also that Iranian forces are better acclimatised to carry out a war of attrition. Reliance on air power provides no significant advantage to any ‘aggressor’.

On Shia resistance

Additionally, one must add a symbolic dimension to any conflict that is aimed at overthrowing a Shite regime. Shite political culture draws heavily on the memory of the ‘Battle of Karbala’ that symbolises civilisational resistance, and not just geopolitics. The narrative emphasises patience, sacrifice, resistance and strategic endurance. A war intended to change the present dispensation in Iran by outside forces such as Israel, would only provide an opportunity to enhance the religious, political and transnational aspects of Shite Islam.

Expansion of the current war launched by the U.S. and Israel is more likely to be perceived as approximating to striking at the roots of political Shiism — in Iran and elsewhere. Western military superiority does not guarantee strategic victory. Nor will a war automatically result in altering geopolitical outcomes inside Iran and across the region, or to a regime collapse in Iran. All this would pave the way for a long drawn-out war, irrespective of the consequences.

The appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei as the Supreme Leader following Ali Khamenei’s killing on February 28, should again be viewed not as a mere rite of passage but as a triumph for the radical messianic-apocalyptic aspect of Shite Islam. In a sense, it is triggering a revival of Shite militancy — and in an aggravated form. This leaves little room for any expectation that the revolutionary fervour will diminish with the killing of additional Ayatollahs.

The U.S. and Israel, hence, need to be careful before venturing into the ‘spider’s web’, for the cost of delusion could be grave not only for Israel and the U.S. but also for the world at large. There is still time, at least for the U.S., to retrieve the situation and alter the policy direction that has been initiated under Mr. Netanyahu’s instigation. Israel’s deliberate provocation, including its latest attack very close to Iran’s Bushehr nuclear power plant (built with Russian collaboration) was a needless — and perhaps a deliberate — act of provocation by Israel. Such issues need to be avoided lest the world is plunged into third world war, with untold sufferings for mankind.

M.K. Narayanan is a former Director, Intelligence Bureau, a former National Security Adviser, and a former Governor of West Bengal

Published – April 01, 2026 12:16 am IST