Kerala Assembly Elections 2026: Close margins, shifting alliances define Kunnathunadu outcome

The Kunnathunadu Assembly constituency has kept both fronts interested since its maiden election in 1965, with the United Democratic Front (UDF) securing victory seven times, the Left Democratic Front (LDF) five times, and the Revolutionary Socialist Party once.

From a four-cornered contest in 2021, the battle has now sharpened into a more intense three-way fight, with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) throwing its weight behind its National Democratic Alliance (NDA) partner Twenty20. It is a rematch between sitting MLA P.V. Sreenijin of the Communist Party of India (Marxist) [CPI(M)] and Congress’ V.P. Sajeendran who had won the segment twice, with Twenty20 candidate Babu Divakaran, a former Congressman and former chairperson of the Adoor municipality, completing the field.

Mr. Sajeendran, who had won twice since 2011 after the constituency was reserved for Scheduled Castes following delimitation in 2008, lost in 2021 at a narrow margin of 2,715 votes—less than 2% of the total vote cast. The decisive factor was the nearly 43,000 votes (27.7%) polled by Twenty20’s Sujith P. Surendran. BJP’s candidate Renu Suresh had secured over 7,000 votes (4.70%).

Telling signals

On paper, the NDA’s combined vote share, factoring in the Twenty20 and the BJP, appears strong enough to tilt the balance going by the last election outcome. Yet five years is a long time in politics, and the results of the recent local body elections offer telling signals. Of the eight panchayats that make up the constituency, the Congress and the Twenty20 won four each, leaving the LDF empty-handed.

Even so, cracks have appeared in the Twenty20’s dominance. While it retained four panchayats overall, it lost Kunnathunadu and Mazhuvannoor to the UDF. Though it wrested Thiruvaniyoor and Poothrikka, the sweep was less emphatic than in 2020. Even in Kizhakkambalam, considered its impregnable bastion, the party lost several seats.

Unahppy Twenty20 cadre

Long before its alliance with the NDA, the Twenty20 had declared Mr. Sreenijin persona non grata, with the conflict even spilling into legal disputes. Disillusioned Twenty20 supporters who are unhappy with the NDA ties may gravitate towards Mr. Sajeendran, if they don’t abstain altogether. Sections of the cadre are also reportedly dissatisfied with the choice of Mr. Divakaran, perceived as an outsider.

Mr. Sajeendran, meanwhile, has remained active in the constituency despite his defeat five years ago. He was the dominant UDF figure in welcoming the Twenty20 members who crossed over to the Congress, disenchanted by their party’s alliance with the NDA.

The late Congress leader T.H. Mustafa represented the constituency four times, including a hat-trick of victories from 1982 to 1991 and again in 2001. Notably, no LDF candidate has ever managed to retain the seat consecutively. The BJP entered the fray in 1982, but has remained a marginal player, never crossing double digits in terms of vote share. The NDA’s best performance came in 2016, when Bharath Dharma Jana Sena candidate Thuravoor Suresh polled over 11% of the votes.

Incidentally, the victory margins in the constituency have never touched five figure mark except in 2001 when Mr. Mustafa wrested back the seat from the CPI(M).