Kerala Assembly Polls 2026: Inflation, a major talking point ahead of polls

As campaign caravans criss-cross Kerala’s towns and villages in the run-up to the Assembly elections, the conversation at tea shops and ration queues is less about slogans and more about prices. Inflation, albeit a quiet factor, has emerged as a defining undercurrent shaping voter sentiment across the State.

For homemakers like Lakshmi Suresh in Mannanthala, Thiruvananthapuram, the arithmetic of survival has grown harsher. Rice, once a predictable expense, now fluctuates sharply. Coconut oil, indispensable in Kerala kitchens, has seen dramatic spikes. “Every visit to the market feels like a negotiation,” she says.

What data say

Her concern is echoed in data: the State’s Consumer Food Price Index has climbed to 6.17%, much above the national average (3.47% as of February).

Yet, Kerala’s story is not merely one of price rise, but of a long-standing welfare architecture attempting to cushion its effects. Over decades, the public distribution system has functioned as the backbone of food security in the State. Kerala State Planning Board member K. Ravi Raman says the State’s universal food security framework has insulated vulnerable sections from the worst effects of inflation.

Additional subsidies

He also highlights that Kerala’s approach has consistently gone beyond the minimum mandates of the National Food Security Act (NFSA). While the Act covers a limited share of the population, the State has extended additional subsidies and categories to include those left out, thereby maintaining a near-universal coverage. This has been crucial in maintaining social stability during periods of economic stress, including the COVID-19 pandemic, floods and other crises.

Dr. Raman adds that Kerala’s public distribution system has continuously adapted to changing socio-economic realities. The system combines ration shops, Supplyco outlets and technology-enabled monitoring to reduce leakages and improve transparency.

Stabilising prices

A key aspect of the ongoing intervention has been the efforts to stabilise prices in the open market. By fixing and supplying 13 essential commodities at subsidised rates through Supplyco outlets, the State has sought to act as a counterweight to inflationary pressures, he points out.

Anitha Kumary L., Visiting Faculty, Gulati Institutve of Finance and Taxation, points out that nearly ₹10,000 crore has been allocated to food security and subsidies since 2020-21. She credits the government’s market intervention schemes with stabilising prices during the COVID-19 pandemic and other disruptions. Initiatives such as Janakeeya Hotels, which offered meals at ₹25, and Supplyco’s discounted sale of essentials are often cited as examples of targeted welfare translating into everyday relief.

She, however, acknowledges that inflationary pressures remain structurally higher in a consumer State like Kerala with specific consumption patterns, particularly for coconut-based products. In such a context, sustained and intensified market intervention is not optional but necessary, Prof. Anitha pointed out.

Supplyco’s troubles

However, this narrative of relative success is sharply contested. Public policy expert John Samuel argues that the State’s market intervention has not been up to the mark. While the ration system largely depends on Central allocations under the NFSA, he points to systemic weaknesses in the functioning of Supplyco. Mounting arrears, delayed payments and stock shortages at outlets have undermined the effectiveness of price control efforts, he claimed.

“Many outlets simply did not have adequate stocks when people needed them. As a result, when subsidised goods fail to reach shelves on time, consumers are pushed into the open market, where prices are significantly higher.”

High transport expenses

Mr. Samuel also highlights broader structural issues including the State’s dependence on imports, declining agricultural production, and rising fuel costs that inflate transport expenses. The rising prices of perishables, including rice, coconut oil and vegetables, have contributed to Kerala recording among the highest rural inflation rates in the country.

Economist Mary George also points to the recurring shortages in Supplyco outlets, especially during high-demand festive periods like Onam, and to a decline in supplier participation due to delayed payments. “When dues accumulate, suppliers stay away. What follows is either scarcity or compromised quality. There have been several examples of substandard food grains entering the system,” she claims.

‘80% imported’

She also accuses the LDF government of failing to meet its promise of providing essential commodities at significantly lower rates compared to open markets. Prof. George says the larger issue that Kerala food security mechanism faces is its structural vulnerability. “With nearly 80% of its requirements imported, any fluctuation in fuel prices or supply chains quickly translates into local inflation. In such a scenario, timely and effective government intervention becomes crucial. The failure to act at critical moments has aggravated the situation,” she remarks.

As the election approaches, diverse narratives are playing out in voter conversations, be it regarding a robust welfare system or its inadequacies. For many, the question is not whether the State intervened, but whether those interventions were sufficient, timely and reliable.

Published – March 29, 2026 08:16 am IST