​Tepid promises: on India and non-fossil capacity

India came in late, but it was worth the wait. A section of the Paris Agreement, under which all countries except the United States have agreed to keep temperatures from rising beyond 2°C of pre-Industrial times, requires updating their targets every five years from 2020. As of December last year, India and Argentina were the only two G-20 countries that had not announced updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) for 2035. This was despite India’s Environment Minister committing at COP30 in Brazil, in November 2025, to update by the ‘year-end’. The saving grace is that this happened in time before Financial Year 2025-26 ends in a week. The latest set of NDCs by India commits to, by 2035, an installed electric capacity that is 60% from non-fossil sources; reducing, by 47%, the intensity of emissions per unit of GDP and having a 3.5 billion tonne-4 billion tonne CO₂ carbon sink. This is an update over India’s 2020 NDCs: of an installed electric capacity that is 50% from non-fossil sources; reducing, by 45%, the intensity of emissions per unit of GDP and having a 2.5 billion tonne-3 billion tonne CO₂ carbon sink. Thus, the necessary boxes have been ticked.

The EU has committed to a 40%-49% cut below 2005 levels. As a developing nation, India — a significant contributor of net emissions in recent years but below the world average in per capita emissions — will not cut annual emissions but promises to emit less carbon per unit of energy and source more of its power from non-fossil sources. It has also committed to being net zero by 2070 through increasing its tree and forest cover (which absorb CO₂) and the recently announced technology pathways such as carbon capture, utilisation, and storage. India’s 2035 goals are easily achievable and the government has expressed that plainly. India already met its 2030 non-fossil target last year, with 52% capacity installed. The rub is that only about 25% of the power generated is non-fossil due to insufficient battery storage which is unable to harness all the available solar and wind power. The Power Ministry’s National Generation Adequacy Plan itself expects 70% of the projected installed 1,121 GW capacity by 2035-36 to be non-fossil. It is tempting to laud India for embellishing its green commitments amidst a war in West Asia that has squeezed supply of a vital fossil fuel. However, without actual improvements in generated supply, these numbers mean little. With the war demonstrating the chokehold that a fossil fuel has, India must exhibit more urgency toward enhancing battery storage and improving its electric grid to better utilise existing non-fossil capacity.