Kerala Assembly elections 2026: Possibility of Muslim vote shift a worry for LDF

With two weeks left in the run-up to the April 9 Assembly election, discussions within the State’s Muslim community suggest a shifting political mood, with no clear consensus on voting preferences.

Bloc voting appears unlikely, and many voters are expected to base their choices on merit and local factors. However, there are signs of a perceptible shift from the 2021 elections, when a significant section of the community had backed the Left Democratic Front (LDF).

The controversial remarks made by SNDP Yogam general secretary Vellappally Natesan a couple of months ago seem to have deeply influenced Muslim voter sentiment. While his comments initially triggered resentment, some believe their impact has softened over time. However, the perceived tacit support extended by the Communist Party of India (Marxist) to him continues to cause unease within the community.

“Mr. Natesan has hurt the sentiments of large sections of ordinary Muslims with his baseless remarks, and he could be a key factor if the community shifts away from the LDF this time,” says Siraj Karoly, a High Court lawyer and State executive member of the Congress (S) led by Kadannappally Ramachandran.

Mr. Karoly notes that minority voters had largely backed the LDF in the 2016 and 2021 elections, when the Bharatiya Janata Party was in power at the Centre. However, citing trends in the recent local body polls, he says the situation had changed significantly. The shift, he says, is not uniform. “Sections of the community, particularly intellectuals, may still favour the LDF,” he says.

According to Nazeer Chaliyam, former member of the Kerala State Commission for Protection of Child Rights, the CPI(M) has taken a calculated risk in embracing Mr. Natesan, anticipating gains in other communities. “The party is aware of the damage his remarks caused, but it finds itself in a catch-22 situation. In the end, it may not be the CPI(M) but the BJP that stands to benefit,” he says.

While prominent Sunni and Mujahid groups traditionally supported the UDF, the Sunni faction led by Kanthapuram A.P. Aboobacker Musliyar and the Jamaat-e-Islami had backed the LDF. Today, however, the Jamaat-e-Islami has emerged as an opponent of the LDF, while the Kanthapuram-led Sunni group remains neutral.

“It is unlikely that there will be en bloc voting for any front. It is not that one front is better than the other. Whoever wins, there should not be any brutal majority,” says Jamal Karulai, district secretary of the Kerala Muslim Jamaat, the Sunni outfit headed by Mr. Aboobacker Musliyar.

Organisations like the Jamaat-e-Islami are also shaping discourse within the community. According to Mr. Nazeer, attempts to brand such groups as “communal” may not resonate with voters and could backfire politically. “It can backfire on the CPI(M),” he says.

The purported vilification of Indian Union Muslim League (IUML) State president Syed Sadikali Shihab Thangal on social media may also backfire, potentially consolidating the party’s strength. Slogans like ‘Ya Sayyid Panakkad,’ reaffirming loyalty to the Panakkad leadership, are gaining traction and energising the IUML’s base in Malabar.