T.N. Assembly election 2026: AIADMK facing its biggest test in 53 years

The 53-year-old AIADMK, the principal Opposition party in the Tamil Nadu Assembly, is hoping that the April 23 election will end its lean phase in electoral politics, which began in December 2017 with the party’s defeat in the R.K. Nagar by-election.  

Having realised that it is a ‘do or die’ battle, the party is leaving no stone unturned. For more than a year, district secretary-level meetings were held more regularly than ever in the past. At these meetings, general secretary Edappadi K. Palaniswami’s constant refrain had been to drive home repeatedly the importance of keeping the party infrastructure well oiled, apart from undertaking constituency-wise review of updating electoral rolls. Of course, the general secretary is himself working on the nitty-gritty of seat-sharing for the election.   

The task ahead of EPS

Despite being better than his predecessor Jayalalithaa with regard to accessibility to the media and participation in the Assembly proceedings as the Leader of Opposition and being as good as her in terms of countering the ruling dispensation with facts and figures, Mr. Palaniswami has not been able to generate the image of a devastating Opposition leader. In the three-year period starting from 2021, he had to compete, in occupying the anti-DMK space, with the then State president of the BJP, K. Annamalai, who was seen as an aggressive and ambitious politician. In the last one-and-a-half years, the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) founder Vijay has been seeking to present himself as more critical of the DMK than the AIADMK chief.

All said and done, the key test for any leader is their ability to emerge victorious at the hustings. That way, Mr. Palaniswami is lagging behind Jayalalithaa, as the latter tasted a huge electoral success within a year of assuming the mantle of a unified party when the AIADMK-Congress combine recorded a landslide in the 1989 Lok Sabha election. In nine years since becoming the party’s pivotal figure in February 2017, Mr. Palaniswami has only two instances of saving grace – his ability to retain power by winning in nine Assembly constituencies out of 22 that had by-polls during April-May 2019, and the party’s victory in two by-polls in Nanguneri and Vikravandi later that year.  

After losing power in the 2021 Assembly poll, the party’s moment of great humiliation was the 2024 Lok Sabha election when it lost not only all the 34 seats that it had contested but also forfeited deposit in seven of them, a first for the party in any Lok Sabha election. In 45 Assembly segments, the AIADMK was behind the BJP. Totally, in 76 Assembly segments, the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance’s (NDA) nominees netted higher votes than those of the Dravidian major’s coalition that had then included the Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK). Among the factors that contributed to such a poor show was the erosion suffered by the organisation after the expulsion of former coordinator O. Panneerselvam and his followers in July 2022. Surprisingly, even after this episode and under pressure internally to mend fences with Mr. Panneerselvam and former interim general secretary V.K. Sasikala, who played an important role in making him Chief Minister in 2017, Mr. Palaniswami did not budge. For about nine months, he had repeated there would be no truck with the BJP in the future. But he took a sudden U-turn in April 2025 when the revival of ties between the Dravidian major and the national party was announced. 

BJP’s role in alliance

In the last couple of months, the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK), headed by former Union Minister Anbumani Ramadoss and the Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK), led by T.T.V. Dhinakaran, joined the NDA bandwagon, headed by the AIADMK. However, the way the BJP – especially Union Ministers Amit Shah and Piyush Goyal – has been engaging itself in seat-sharing has given the impression that it is the national party that is calling the shots. This gives ample room for political adversaries to attack the Dravidian major. Mr. Dhinakaran, the other day in New Delhi, responded to this criticism of the NDA’s leaders having to go to New Delhi by saying that it would not be possible for Mr. Shah and Mr. Goyal to visit Chennai every now and then. As far as Mr. Palaniswami is concerned, the alliance is built on “mutual friendship“ among its constituents and hence, there is no cause for worry.  

Weak spots

Among the challenges that the AIADMK faces is its relative weakness in Chennai and surrounding areas, and parts of the Cauvery delta and southern districts. So far, there is no indication of the party having recovered substantially its lost space in these places, despite Mr. Palaniswami’s efforts to strengthen the party. The party’s calculation is that the AMMK’s presence in the NDA would be beneficial in certain pockets of the State.  

Irrespective of the outcome in the election, Mr. Vijay and Ms. Sasikala are expected to do everything to cannibalise the AIADMK politically if Mr. Palaniswami does not become Chief Minister again in May. And it should not be surprising if the two receive help even from the BJP. This is why the 2026 Assembly is a ‘do or die’ battle for the AIADMK and its general secretary.