A game of four – The Hindu

With the filing of nominations set to begin in about 10 days, the political theatre in Tamil Nadu is all set to have yet another show of lively, even acrimonious performances from different actors. This time the show may be, in certain respects, different from the previous ones, in view of reports of voters among Gen Z feeling left out by established political forces — the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) and the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK). Will the presence of the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), headed by popular actor Vijay, cause a disruption, and at what level?

As on date, the coalitions led by the DMK and the AIADMK — the Secular Progressive Alliance (SPA) and the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) respectively — have not yet finalised the seat-sharing process. The DMK, which has entered into electoral pacts with the Congress (for 28 seats); the Communist Party of India (CPI – five seats); the Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (four seats); and the Indian Union Muslim League, the Manithaneya Makkal Katchi and the Kongunadu Makkal Desiya Katchi (two seats each), has not yet firmed up the deal with the CPI (Marxist), Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi (VCK), Desiya Murpokku Dravida Kazhagam (DMDK) and the Makkal Needhi Maiam (MNM). In addition to this, there are other small parties in the DMK’s fold. A prominent feature of the seat allocation exercise being carried out by the ruling party is that barring the Congress, the share of other parties has been cut down, an aspect that has not been relished by the allies. Yet, those allies which have arrived at an understanding with the Dravidian major have done it because they do not want to rock the boat, in their political battle with the NDA, especially the BJP. Meanwhile, the DMK has been holding interviews with ticket aspirants. Former Chief Minister and coordinator of the AIADMK, O. Panneerselvam, and his son, former Theni MP P. Ravindhranath, who defected to the DMK last month, are among aspirants.

Fault lines in DMK alliance

Till the seat-sharing negotiations began about a month ago, the SPA was a picture of cohesion. In the last five years, all the major agitations, organised by the DMK against the BJP-led regime at the Centre, saw enthusiastic participation by the constituents of the alliance. But, in the last one month or so, fault lines came to the fore as the DMK pushed the idea of the allies having to give up one or two seats of theirs for the purpose of accommodating parties such as the MNM and the DMDK, both of which were in other formations during the 2021 Assembly polls.

The TVK’s offer of share in power, made by Mr. Vijay at the party’s inaugural conference in Vikravandi, about 150 km south of Chennai, was too tempting for the Congress to resist, as the national party had lost power in the State nearly 60 years ago. Eventually, thanks to the realisation of the Congress high command about the futility of going along with the recent entrant, and perseverance of the DMK leadership, the alliance between the two survived the test. The national party got three seats more than during the last Assembly election. Also, it was provided with a berth in the Rajya Sabha. The CPI(M) and the VCK, allies of the DMK nearly for 10 years at a stretch, have been seeking a higher share than in the past, and this is reportedly delaying the finalisation of the seat-sharing process.

As far as the AIADMK-led NDA is concerned, it has almost been one year since the Dravidian major and the BJP announced the revival of their ties. The two had contested in the 2024 Lok Sabha election on their own, having their respective fronts but the end result — all the 39 constituencies going in favour of the SPA — had forced the two to come together again. Over the months, there were dramatic turns such as the exit of the Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam (AMMK), headed by T.T.V. Dhinakaran, from the NDA in September 2025 and, four months later, its “homecoming.” Another open supporter of the BJP, Mr. Panneerselvam found himself in an awkward position owing to AIADMK general secretary Edappadi K. Palaniswami’s firm refusal to accommodate him. He did what he would not have imagined even 10 years ago — joining the AIADMK’s traditional adversary, the DMK. The Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK), an ally of the BJP in the 2024 polls, has suffered a split with founder S. Ramadoss and his son and former Union Minister Anbumani Ramadoss falling apart. Dr. Anbumani is now a constituent of the NDA. Other parties, including the Tamil Maanila  Congress (Moopanar), are expected to be accommodated in the NDA.

The front’s leader Mr. Palaniswami held two rounds of discussion with Union Home Minister Amit Shah in New Delhi in the last couple of weeks, apart from talks with Union Minister and the BJP’s point person for Tamil Nadu Piyush Goyal. As Mr. Palaniswami himself is involved in this process, he perhaps did not bother to constitute committees, including one for seat sharing, till March 15, the day in which the Election Commission announced the poll schedule for the State.

In contrast, the DMK’s panel for seat sharing began its work on February 22. Even though Mr. Palaniswami has been saying that there is “perfect understanding” within his front and there will be no hitch in sorting out issues regarding allocation and identification of seats, the revamped NDA has not done much in presenting itself as a cohesive force. It missed several opportunities in the last one year to embarrass the DMK regime by mobilising its cadres to highlight several issues of public importance. It was only on March 17 that the NDA, for the first time, organised State-wide demonstrations against the DMK government.

Since the AIADMK renewed its ties with the BJP after the death of former Chief Minister Jayalalithaa in December 2016, its adversaries have been criticising the organisation for “ceding its space” to the national party. This talk got a fresh lease of life after the AIADMK mended its fences with the BJP in April 2025. The DMK has been quick to take a dig at its longstanding adversary by interpreting Mr. Palaniswami’s visits to New Delhi as a “political battle between Tamil Nadu and Delhi,” a point that Chief Minister and DMK chief M.K. Stalin made. The Dravidian major, by projecting the usual binary of “North versus South” and “Hindi versus Tamil”, is presenting itself as “the crusader of Tamil land, race, language and culture,” observes Thanga Jayaraman, a professor of English who had been a student-leader of the Congress in the 1960s. However, the AIADMK’s deputy general secretary and former Minister K.P. Munusamy says that his party has a “long history” of handling national parties. He recalls how the AIADMK, then under Jayalalithaa’s leadership, had “helped” the BJP win a few Lok Sabha constituencies for the first time in the State during 1998. “So, no one will be able to swallow anybody else,” he says emphatically.

Trading charges

While the AIADMK is focusing on “deteriorating” law and order, “lack of safety” to women and the DMK regime’s “inability” to provide succour to people “reeling under the impact of inflation”, the ruling party is banking on factors such as the efficacy of welfare measures and the “enabling environment created” for high rates of economic growth in the last couple of years. Beyond the alliance math, there is a trend in many other States wherein sitting governments have been re-elected, says newly-elected Rajya Sabha MP of the DMK Constantine Ravindran. Making use of the popular narrative against the AIADMK, the TVK’s chief, Mr Vijay, has been going after the DMK and trying to take the lion’s share of the anti-DMK space. He has been campaigning on the theme that the electoral battle is between him and the DMK. In a way, his strategy seems to replicate what former State president of the BJP K. Annamalai  did during 2022-24. There are some psephologists who say the TVK will do much better in Chennai, surrounding areas and parts of the Cauvery  delta than in other parts of the State. This has to be seen with the view that where the AIADMK is weaker, the TVK will be stronger. “Fundamentally, Mr. Vijay’s support base goes beyond his fans,” says information technology professional P. Vijay, who hails from Gobichettipalayam. The political stock of the TVK founder, according to his supporters, has not suffered any dent despite the Karur stampede, his public remarks on the divorce proceedings initiated by his wife and the talk of being receptive to aligning with the BJP, which he has been calling the “ideological rival”. However, it is also true that sections of his fans seem to have been disturbed by the recent developments. Notwithstanding such adverse feedback, the fledgling party has decided to go it alone and announced that it would field nominees in all the 234 seats.

Besides these three players, there is a fourth player in the 16-year-old Naam Tamilar Katchi (NTK), led by actor-director Seeman. Known for effective articulation of views, Mr. Seeman, in all these 10 years of electoral politics, has not aligned with any other party. He has set an example of giving 50% of the party ticket to women in Assembly and Lok Sabha polls. This time, he has done an uncommon act — giving ticket to six Brahmins, a community perceived as a political liability for long. The residual political space may be occupied by some more players, such as the coalition stitched by the All India Puratchithalaivar Makkal Munnetra Kazhagam led by the AIADMK’s former interim general secretary, V.K. Sasikala, and the PMK faction headed by the senior Dr. Ramadoss. Regardless of certain attractive features of the TVK and other minor players, only the two principal formations seem to remain as the dominant forces at least in this election.

Published – March 22, 2026 05:30 am IST