Inside China, authority, conflict and strategic challenges

The progression from Mao Tse Tung/Mao Zedong to Deng Xiaoping to Xi Jinping in China reveals the nature of the power shifts that have occurred since the country became a communist nation in 1949. All three iconic leaders, in their own way, demonstrated what was essential to maintain and sustain power in a country that had managed to stave-off takeovers by foreign powers over the years.

Since 1949, when Mao Tse Tung led the Communist Party of China (CPC) to victory and took control, the three eponymous leaders wielded unquestioned authority over the party and the country. Between 1949 and 2026, there have, no doubt, been many other leaders who steered the country’s fortunes, but it is Mao, Deng and Mr. Xi who left an indelible stamp on China’s fortunes and progress.

The ‘inner devils’

Across China, signs of Mr. Xi’s authority are markedly evident. However, even as China has emerged as the second most powerful country, it faces its own ‘inner devils’. Periodic purges at the highest levels of state institutions have led to conflicting interpretations as to the real state of affairs. While China outwardly appears to be a monolith, several purges have been intended to eliminate opposition to the leader of the time. This was also the case during the periods of Mao and Deng.

In the latest purge, Mr. Xi removed the highly placed general of the Peoples’ Liberation Army (PLA) , and vice-chairman of the Central Military Commission, General Zhang Youxia, and another another senior officer, Gen. Liu Zhenli, from the highest policymaking body of the CPC. The purge also claimed nine military law makers from China’s Parliament including Ground Force Commander Li Qiaoming and Information Support Force Political Commissar Li Wei. It is worth examining whether this is merely another purge by Mr. Xi or an indication of the growing challenges to his leadership. A hint to this effect is the language used to describe Gen. Zhang in the People’s Liberation Army Daily, viz. ‘a toxin that had to be incised’. This could lead to an inference of inner party struggles at the top of the Chinese Communist pyramid. While by no means proven, it is still worth examining.

Even during Mao’s lifetime, there was the infamous Liu Shaoqi episode, which though not acknowledged as a power struggle, is viewed by experts as having been an abortive challenge to Mao’s supremacy. While Mr. Xi appears to have emerged successful, yet again, the fig leaf of another massive anti-corruption purge is beginning to wear thin. It merits a rethink of China today as a monolith, facing few internal challenges.

Most prophets seem to flounder when it comes to making political predictions. While Mr. Xi may appear stronger on the surface following the recent purges, it is worth considering the nature of the ‘inner devils’ said to be hindering China’s progress. Analysing China’s future clearly demands better comprehension of where China stands today.

Over the years, the mask that China is a monolith has been wearing thin. Insightful analysis would seem to suggest that belief in the goals set by the leadership has been declining, producing a degree of ‘trust deficit’. Together with a less than optimistic assessment of the state of the Chinese economy, and the problems faced by some of its political institutions, it may be presumed that inner tensions are increasing, and are beginning to impact the highest levels of the party. Dealing with such a situation would undoubtedly require drastic measures to retain control and ‘snuff out’ all opposition to the leadership, even at the highest party levels. This, rather than accusations of corruption against senior party functionaries, would seem a more plausible explanation for the periodic purges taking place.

Dents to global credibility

Exacerbating international tensions and China’s apparent ineffectiveness in addressing challenges beyond its ‘near abroad’ — namely East and Southeast Asia — seem to have damaged its image as a global power, potentially intensifying tensions within the CPC leadership. Venezuela was a test case of China’s global outreach in this respect at the beginning of 2026. China failed the test and could not counter United States President Donald Trump’s assertions that the Western Hemisphere belonged to the U.S. and no one else. This despite China having invested a great deal in Venezuela in recent years. More recently, in West Asia, China again failed to demonstrate its ability to checkmate the U.S. and prevent an attack on Iran, leading to the death of Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei.

The outcome in West Asia has, incidentally, prompted unfavourable comparisons between Chinese weaponry and that of the U.S. and the West, further harming China’s reputation. China’s conspicuous incapability to counter the U.S. both in the Western Hemisphere and in West Asia is undoubtedly having repercussions and may have possibly impacted China’s image beyond repair. In China’s eyes, it has, meanwhile, shattered a carefully contrived impression that China is more than equal to the West. It would be reasonable to surmise that this too would have led to recriminations at the highest levels of the party, even, perhaps, provoking a challenge to the ruling dispensation.

It is, however uncertain, as of now, whether China is indeed undergoing a turmoil at the very highest levels of the CPC. What is discernible is that a normally belligerent China has, of late, been acting with far greater circumspection than usual in its dealings with the world at large, and with the U.S. in particular. This is even more surprising considering that China is riding a wave of turbocharged innovation in many areas such as electric vehicles, pharmaceuticals and logistics, and, of late, Artificial Intelligence. In all this, China appears well ahead of the curve.

A reticence

What is even more surprising is that — and with the exception of Taiwan — China, of late, has been disinclined to take a confrontational posture, vis-à-vis the U.S., even deferring to it on some issues. The journey of a Chinese cargo ship, in late 2025, from Asia to Europe, through the Arctic Ocean, that was completed in a fortnight as against the normal three weeks (through the Suez Canal), would normally have been heralded by China as evidence of the emergence of a ‘Polar Silk Road’. But China has preferred to play down this achievement, stating that this contributes to ‘supply chain stability’.

Strategic experts are confounded by this display of reticence, and feel that it is intended to avoid ruffling the feathers of western powers at a time when China’s economy is facing certain problems and Mr. Trump has warned of the threat posed to U.S. interests in Greenland by Chinese ships in the vicinity. Apart from this, China’s unwillingness to press its claims to being a ‘near Arctic State’ requires a valid explanation. Most strategic experts seem to feel that problems at the highest levels of the CPC can be the only plausible explanation.

What also needs valid explanation is the general mood of pessimism that appears to be sweeping across China. No plausible explanation has emerged so far. Cracks in the Communist party monolith could possibly be one explanation. Or it might well be an aggravating fear — about ‘the wind in the tower heralding a great storm’. All this might appear rather far-fetched for now, but is worthy of more detailed analysis, given the past history of Chinese politics.

Given China’s position in the world, the prevailing situation in China deserves a better and more detailed understanding of what is taking place. Events in China cast a shadow not only over Asia but also over much of the world. What is happening in China needs better explanation and understanding. A more benign and less antagonistic China would be of great value to a world facing many crosscurrents. For India, a return to an earlier era of ‘Hindi Chini Bhai Bhai (Indians and Chinese are brothers’) would be a gift worth savouring.

M.K. Narayanan is a former Director, Intelligence Bureau, a former National Security Adviser, and a former Governor of West Bengal

Published – March 11, 2026 12:16 am IST