How fast‑tracking the Women’s Reservation Bill could reshape the 2027 electoral map

Early this month, Parliamentary Affairs Minister Kiren Rijiju called leaders of several opposition parties, informing them that Home Minister Amit Shah wanted to meet them. He did not disclose the reason for the meeting.

One such meeting with the Samajwadi Party was scheduled for March 5. Coincidentally, that was also the day Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, eager to enter the Rajya Sabha, was filing his nomination papers. Mr. Shah had flown from Delhi to Patna to be by his side. He had expected to return to the Capital by evening, in time for the meeting with the Samajwadi Party. But developments in Patna delayed him, and the meeting had to be rescheduled.

Recently, he met Congress leaders and conveyed that the government is keen to accelerate the implementation of the Constitution (One Hundred and Sixth Amendment) Act, known variously as the Nari Shakti Vandan Adhiniyam in official parlance, and more commonly as the Women’s Reservation Bill. Mr. Shah proposed lifting the two limitations imposed by Section 5 of the Act, which states that the reservation for women will come into effect “after an exercise of delimitation is undertaken for this purpose after the relevant figures for the first census taken after commencement of the Act…”

The timing of these “feelers” is significant. In 2027, seven States go to polls, four of which are ruled by the BJP. If the idea fructifies its impact could be felt in these seven States including the prized catch of Uttar Pradesh. The BJP will be defending its government in Uttar Pradesh for a third consecutive term. The State that powered two emphatic BJP victories in the Lok Sabha has also been a slippery slope. In 2017, the BJP won an unprecedented 312 seats; this fell to 255 in 2022. If the 2024 Lok Sabha results are extrapolated to the Assembly segments in the State, the Samajwadi Party is ahead in 178 seats. Along with its ally, the Congress, the alliance comfortably crosses the majority mark of 202 in the 403‑member Assembly.

Electoral arithmetic aside, there are pockets of discontent within the BJP. The party has so far managed to keep internal grievances from spilling into the open, but cracks are now visible. In January this year, for instance, the BJP legislator from Charkhari, a rural constituency in Bundelkhand, led a protest against State Water Minister Swatantra Singh.

Element of surprise

Despite engaging in what is effectively a rare pre‑legislative consultation by informally reaching out to opposition parties, the government’s move carries an element of surprise. With just one year left for the UP Assembly polls, opposition parties will have to wait for the administration to notify which seats will be reserved for women before finalising candidates.

The UP Assembly has historically had a low presence of women legislators. As per the UP Assembly website, there are 51 women MLAs in the 403‑member House—12.6% of its strength. This is not very different from the Lok Sabha’s own record, where women constitute only 14% of MPs in the 18th Lok Sabha. Of the 51 women MLAs, 30 are from the BJP and 15 from the Samajwadi Party. “It is true that the BJP is better placed than us in finding women candidates because their ranks have more women than ours,” a senior SP leader conceded.

Can it blunt Caste‑based dissensions?

The BJP is grappling with internal tensions among caste groups. Brahmins, a core component of the party’s vote base, are aggrieved about what they perceive as marginalisation under the Yogi Adityanath government, where Thakurs enjoy prominence. While Brahmin protests are the most vocal, surfacing recently during demonstrations over UGC equity rules, the party is more worried about losing OBC support. The 2024 Lok Sabha election saw the first signs of an OBC shift away from the BJP, contributing to a steep fall in its tally from 62 seats in 2019 to 33 in 2024. The senior SP leader quoted earlier is doubtful that women’s reservation can paper over these grievances. “Women candidates do not exist in a casteless vacuum,” he said.

Creates headlines

India has had a poor record of women’s representation from the very beginning: the Constituent Assembly had only 15 women. Early women leaders such as Renuka Ray argued against women’s reservation, scoffing at the “narrow suffragist movement” seen in many “so‑called enlightened nations.” She warned that such reservation might exclude women from general seats, arguing instead that women would get more opportunities “if the consideration is of ability alone.” (Constituent Assembly Debates, 18 July 1947). This view shifted over the next 50 years, as “ability alone” did not translate into adequate representation.

The 81st Constitutional Amendment Bill of 1996 sought 33% reservation for women. The Deve Gowda government hoped for a swift disposal of the bill, except the debate spiralled into heated exchanges, with male MPs questioning whether enough “capable women” existed, and others objecting to the lack of reservation within the quota for backward‑caste women. A Joint Committee recommended immediate implementation for 15 years. The Bill lapsed—once, and then four more times between 1998 and 2003.

In 2008, the UPA government reintroduced the Bill in the Rajya Sabha, and yet another report followed. In 2014, the Bill lapsed again. In 2023, the government revived it, but tied its implementation to the Census and delimitation effectively an indefinite delay. This ambiguity was the core of the opposition’s criticism. Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge, speaking during the 2023 debate, argued there was no need to “link women’s reservation with the Census and delimitation,” warning that the conditions could turn the Bill into a “jumla.” If the government now accelerates implementation, it would break a three‑decade‑old jinx.

Mobilises women voters

Women voters have been a dependable support base for the BJP‑led NDA across several States—from Maharashtra to Bihar. Moving from a long‑standing promise to actual reservation could further consolidate this support. Though evidence is mixed on whether women prefer to vote for women candidates, such a move, like many in politics, is an effort with results that are often intangible.

Published – March 10, 2026 09:19 am IST