Projecting a Muslim-centric Opposition – The Hindu

Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma’s public statements are often brazen but layered. He recently projected the Raijor Dal as the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)’s principal rival in the 2031 Assembly elections, and suggested that the party, led by Akhil Gogoi, born out of the protests against the anti-Citizenship (Amendment) Act (CAA), will become a refuge for Muslim leaders. It is a calibrated narrative in the landscape of Assam’s Opposition politics.

By naming the Raijor Dal as the BJP’s likely challenger five years hence, Mr. Sarma is shaping the perception of who matters. Being described as the ‘main rival’ by the Chief Minister elevates a young regional party above other Opposition players.

It also sidelines the Congress and signals that the BJP does not see the grand old party as a long-term ideological threat in Assam.

Editorial | Reining in a bigot: On the Assam Chief Minister’s incendiary rhetoric

Mr. Sarma’s statement on the Raijor Dal becoming a shelter for Muslim leaders coincides with two Congress MLAs — Abdur Rashid Mandal and Sherman Ali Ahmed — joining the Raijor Dal. Both are Bengali-origin Muslims, from a community pejoratively referred to as the Miyas. 

Communal reshaping

This statement by the Chief Minister reinforces a narrative that Opposition parties in Assam are converging around Muslim consolidation. This is particularly significant due to the perception that the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) is losing its hold among Bengali Muslims in western, central, and southern Assam. Recent elections suggest that its appeal is waning. Born in 2005, the AIUDF positioned itself as the principal political voice of Bengali Muslims by penetrating Congress strongholds.

In the context of the upcoming 2026 Assembly polls, two parallel narratives had gained traction. One, that Congress is increasingly dependent on Muslim votes to remain relevant in Assam. Two, that newer regional formations could absorb leaders and voters disillusioned with the AIUDF. By stating that Muslim leaders will switch over to the Raijor Dal, Mr. Sarma collapses these trends into a single storyline — that the anti-BJP space is being reshaped into a Muslim-heavy bloc, regardless of the party label. This serves the BJP’s broader strategy of polarisation without overt provocation. If the Congress is painted as a ‘Muslim party’ and the Raijor Dal as the next platform for Muslim consolidation, the BJP can position itself as the custodian of Assamese Hindu interests.

The framing is not accidental. Mr. Gogoi built his political brand on Assamese nationalism, anti-corruption activism, and opposition to the CAA. His appeal cuts across communities. But by associating the Raijor Dal with Muslim leadership, Mr. Sarma attempts to reframe that party’s identity in the public imagination. 

There is also a tactical benefit in elevating Akhil Gogoi over the Congress, specifically its State president Gaurav Gogoi, Mr. Sarma’s bête noire. The former is a fiery politician with a strong street presence but limited organisational depth. By positioning the Raijor Dal as the main rival for 2031, the BJP effectively encourages a fragmentation of the Opposition vote in the near term.

The Congress, struggling to keep its allies in good humour, is weakened when the narrative shifts from a BJP vs Congress contest to a more crowded Opposition field. 

Moreover, projecting the Raijor Dal as the future rival allows the BJP to argue that its dominance is so entrenched that only a new force can challenge it, and that too only five years from now. 

Opposition anxieties

For the ‘Miyas’, the subtext is equally significant. If the AIUDF is losing ground and the Congress is perceived as unreliable, voters may look for alternatives that promise assertive representation without being pigeonholed as communal. While the Raijor Dal could attract such support, Mr Sarma’s pre-emptive branding complicates that possibility. By casting any shift of Muslim leaders toward the Raijor Dal as evidence of communal consolidation, he raises the political cost of that migration in a polarised environment.

Whether this projection becomes self-fulfilling will depend on how Akhil Gogoi navigates the delicate balance between regional nationalism and inclusive politics.

For now, Mr Sarma’s narrative accomplishes its goal: it divides potential coalitions, and ensures that the BJP remains the central axis around which Assam’s political debate revolves.