Why upper caste support matters for the BJP

In recent weeks, there have been debates and protests in universities across India over the University Grants Commission (UGC) (Promotion of Equity in Higher Education Institutions) Regulations, 2026, designed to promote fairness in higher education. The Supreme Court put the regulations on hold after concerns were raised that the key provisions were vague and prone to misuse.

While the protests focused on educational policy, they also revealed political tensions, particularly among upper caste voters. This is a constituency that is historically significant to the BJP. Although the initial anger was directed at the UGC rules, it soon extended to criticism of the BJP.

This was especially true of upper castes who may have been most affected if the regulations were implemented. The episode highlights the continuing electoral importance of upper castes for the party.

Survey evidence from the National Election Study (NES) conducted by Lokniti-CSDS shows that upper caste Hindu voters have steadily consolidated behind the BJP and its allies over the past three decades (Table 1). While upper castes form a modest share of the electorate, their cohesion and concentration in key States enhance their influence.

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In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, about 60% of upper caste voters backed the National Democratic Alliance, with 53% voting directly for the BJP. Around 20% backed the Congress-led alliance and 14% voted for the Congress.

During the coalition era (1996–2004), upper caste voters leaned towards the BJP, though support had not yet reached majority levels for the party. The 2009 election marked a brief weakening. From 2014 onwards, consolidation became clear: upper caste support for the BJP crossed 50% and has remained above that level. This sustained backing suggests that upper caste voters increasingly view the BJP as their main political choice at the national level.

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State-level data (2014-2024) show that this consolidation is geographically widespread. In Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan, support for the BJP remained above 60% across three Lok Sabha elections. Delhi and Himachal Pradesh show similar stability (Table 2).

In Telangana, where the BJP was historically weak, upper caste support rose sharply from 12% in 2014 to 53% in 2024. In West Bengal, support surged in 2019 before moderating in 2024, yet remained much higher than a decade earlier. In Assam and Odisha, upper caste voters have consistently favoured the BJP despite shifts in overall vote share. Together, this evidence indicates that upper caste support for the BJP is neither regionally confined nor episodic. It forms a durable pillar of the party’s coalition.

Assembly elections provide a stricter test of alignment, as they are shaped more by regional leadership and local issues. If upper caste support were driven only by national mobilisation, it would likely be more volatile in these contests. The evidence instead shows continuity. In Uttar Pradesh, support rose from 71% in 2017 to 78% in 2022 (Table 3).

In Madhya Pradesh, it increased sharply between 2018 and 2023. Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh remain competitive, yet upper-caste support for the BJP is strong. Even in States dominated by regional parties, the BJP’s upper-caste base has remained significant.

Across elections, upper caste voters remain a stable and strategically important constituency for the BJP. This explain why policy debates seen as affecting upper caste interests can carry political implications that extend beyond the issue at hand.

Also read: How welfare delivery shaped, but did not decide, Bihar’s elections

Sanjay Kumar is a Professor and political analyst. Vibha Attri is a researcher working with Lokniti-CSDS. Views expressed by the authors are personal, do not reflect views of their institution.