What happens to India’s Russia oil imports and target of $500 billion imports from U.S.?

The Indian trade delegation’s last-minute postponement of its trip to Washington to finalise an Interim Agreement with the U.S., and the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision on tariffs both have implications for India’s imports from Russia as well as the U.S. 

The Indian delegation was to be in the U.S. on February 23-25 to finalise the Interim Agreement, which Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal said could be implemented between mid-March and early April. However, sources in the Commerce Ministry on February 22 said that the meeting will be rescheduled “at a mutually convenient date”.

“The two sides are of the view that the proposed visit of the Indian chief negotiator and the team be scheduled after each side has had the time to evaluate the latest developments and its implications,” the official said.

Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal has said earlier that India will be able to remove or lower its tariffs for American imports only after a deal is signed. The U.S., on the other hand, could so far modify tariffs through executive orders.  

No more threats over Russian oil

According to trade and legal experts, the decision by the U.S. Supreme Court has meant that President Trump no longer has any laws that will enable him to levy tariffs on India if it continues buying Russian oil in large quantities. 

Further, without the threat of tariffs, India can once again reduce its purchase of relatively expensive American oil and sour Venezuelan oil. 

“With reciprocal tariffs gone, the U.S. now does not have any law under which it can penalise India for buying Russian oil,” Ajay Srivastava, founder of the Global Trade Research Initiative and former Director General of Foreign Trade said. “Even if we were to continue our oil imports from the U.S., which have nearly doubled in the last few months, we should refrain from buying oil from Venezuela.”

An analysis by The Hindu found that the value of India’s crude oil imports from Russia fell to a 38-month low in December 2025, with Russia’s share in India’s oil imports falling to less than a quarter from 34% just a month before. On the other hand, oil imports from the U.S. grew nearly 31% over December 2024.

The analysis also showed that India imported oil from the U.S. at an average price of $506.7 per tonne in December 2025, which is nearly 8% higher than the average price at which it imported oil from Russia that month. 

“On Russian oil, the Indian government has made its position clear that it would ensure India’s energy and strategic security and continue to import from where it gets the best rates,” Pankaj Chadha, chairman of exporter body EEPC India said.

Uncertainty over deal

“India should follow a wait-and-watch approach and should see how other countries that have signed deals with the U.S. are reacting,” Mr. Chadha said. “A deal has two sides, which means they also have to give us something.”

Mr. Srivastava, who has worked on several trade deals in the past, says that the decision to postpone the Indian team’s visit to Washington could simply be an “administrative delay”. 

“There is a possibility that this delay in the Indian team’s visit to the U.S. could have been at the request of the U.S. since their officials would be under fire trying to figure out the way forward,” he explained. “It could very well be an administrative delay.” 

“Several other trading partners of the U.S., with which it had signed deals, have explicitly said that they need more clarity from the U.S. before the deals can be ratified,” Mr. Srivastava added. “India has said that it has noted the developments and is studying them, but did not mention the progress of the deal.”

Impact on India’s imports

A delayed Interim Agreement will also push back the date from which India will have to reduce tariffs for imports from the U.S. This can have a dual effect. 

On the one hand, domestic manufacturers can breathe a little easier since they will not have to compete with duty-free imports from the U.S. 

However, on the other hand, several items that India in any case imports from the U.S. in large and rising quantities will continue to face import tariffs, thereby making them more expensive than they would have been had the deal gone through. 

Mr. Goyal has previously told The Hindu that there are several items such as oil, LPG, LNG, aircraft and parts, parts for data centres and quantum computing that India needs but does not manufacture, and so would need to import. 

India’s imports of electronic components grew 117% to around $2.1 billion in April-December 2025 as compared to the same period of the previous year. Similarly, the import of telecom instruments increased 25%, and of organic chemicals by nearly 34% over this period.  

The joint statement between the two countries said India intends to import $500 billion worth of energy products, aircraft and aircraft parts, precious metals, technology products, and coking coal from the U.S. over the next 5 years. It is unclear whether this intention will remain in the absence of a trade deal.

Other countries have mixed response 

The European Union has also said the U.S. must provide more clarity before the EU Parliament can ratify the U.S.-EU deal. 

“A deal is a deal,” the European Commission said in a statement on February 22. “As the United States’ largest trading partner, the EU expects the U.S. to honour its commitments set out in the Joint Statement — just as the EU stands by its commitments.”

“In particular, EU products must continue to benefit from the most competitive treatment, with no increases in tariffs beyond the clear and all-inclusive ceiling previously agreed,” the statement added. 

Bernd Lange, chair of the European Parliament’s international trade committee, said he would be recommending “putting legislative work on hold until we have a proper legal assessment and clear commitments from the US side”.  

Officials in Japan, on the other hand, have shied away from saying they will be relooking at the deal. According to them, the crux of Japan’s deal with the U.S. was on lowering auto-related tariffs, which remain unaffected by the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision.

Published – February 23, 2026 01:24 pm IST