​A decisive mandate: On Tarique Rahman, the BNP, the Bangladesh result

With a landslide verdict in its favour, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) is set to form the government in Dhaka, with its leader, Tarique Rahman, becoming the country’s first male Prime Minister elected to the post in decades. Mr. Rahman’s road to the post, two decades after being barred from elections (due to cases) and going into exile under the previous Awami League government, is dramatic, with his return to Bangladesh just days before the death of his mother and former Prime Minister, Khaleda Zia. The interim government led by Muhammad Yunus is expected to hand over the reins to Mr. Rahman. Despite its more than two-thirds of the elected seats in the Jatiya Sangsad, the BNP has many challenges ahead. As the first elected government since Sheikh Hasina’s ouster in August 2024, the first order of business will be to restore old political institutions and effect a political reconciliation. This could mean releasing political prisoners and an outreach to the banned Awami League, many of whose supporters did not vote. The next will be to prepare for the challenge from the Jamaat-e-Islami, whose coalition won about 75 seats in Parliament, its best performance yet. As a more vocal opposition now, the Jamaat, whose leaders have pitched a regressive line on women’s rights and for religious politics, will try and push the new centrist government to the right. Voters have also emphatically supported the ‘July Charter’ referendum, that calls for a caretaker government, reforms that could shift the powers of the Prime Minister, and an upper house in Parliament with proportional representation. Meanwhile, Mr. Rahman must hit the ground running on reviving the economy and restoring trade links with India.

For New Delhi, keen to reset ties after they hit a nadir under Mr. Yunus, the outreach to the new government is important. The Modi government has had tensions with the BNP as it reduced engagement with the opposition in Bangladesh during Ms. Hasina’s tenure. It must also take back the space ceded to Pakistan, the U.S. and China, which have each forged new relations with Bangladesh since Ms. Hasina’s ouster. Perhaps more than bilateral relations, ruptured trade and connectivity, security and sporting ties, New Delhi and Dhaka must repair the frayed ties between their peoples. In Bangladesh, securing India’s missions and ensuring the safety of minorities will be essential. For India, it is necessary to dial down the domestic rhetoric against Bangladesh, that is allowing political groups (many are affiliated to the ruling party), to threaten Bangladeshis in India. The Modi and Rahman governments will have to move most delicately, however, in managing the issue of Ms. Hasina, who remains a wanted fugitive in Dhaka and an honoured guest in Delhi, if they are intent on a fresh start in ties.